I know, I am more noted for my passionate opinions on sports. Love the Yankees. Hate the SEC. Consider Alabama and Nick Satan an abomination against all that is decent and good in America. There. But as the college bowl season draws down (I know there is one big game still out there, and perhaps a few others I am not aware of), I would try to make some reasonable reflections on what we have seen.
1. This year, there were probably only TWO teams that deserved to be in the College Football Playoff.
It would appear that Clemson and Alabama are the two best teams in the nation this year and that the gap between 2 and 3 is pretty substantial. We can spill a lot of blood discussing who should be ranked #3 through #8, whether Notre Dame or OU or OSU or UCF or Georgia (Ohio State was the only one of those teams to win a bowl game) deserved to be #3 and #4, and who got the shaft from the committee. But the two best teams are in the championship. There doesn’t seem to be much doubt about that.
2. We should not make policy based on this year.
I’ve heard several people say that we should not expand the playoffs because of this year’s clear supremacy of Alabama and Clemson. I do not think that follows. Not every year is like this year. Frankly, I think the one team that COULD have given the top 2 teams a game is Ohio State – if they played the way they are capable of playing, which they almost never do. I am not even saying they should have gotten in ahead of Notre Dame or OU – as much of a Big 10 homer as I am, I don’t think they deserved to get in this year. But I think that on their best day, they could probably outplay every other team except for 1 and 2.
3. An 8-team playoff is probably best.
Many have suggested a 16 team playoff, but I think an 8 team playoff is sufficient. Is there a team ranked 6 or 7 who could conceivably win 3 games and take the title? There has been. The year Ohio State won it all, TCU had a good case to get in ahead of them and dominated their bowl game. They might have been the best team in the nation, and they didn’t even get to compete. It wouldn’t happen often, but a 5-8 seed could step up and win it all every few years. Would a 12 seed or a 15 seed do that? I doubt it. Maybe once in a generation. Hoosiers anyone?
Personally, I want to see this thing taken out of the hands of the secret, unaccountable committee. Put the winners of the Power-5 conferences in, and give a spot to the highest-rated champion of a non-power 5 conference (UCF). Then, add 2 wildcards (power rankings) and go. Actually, in a perfect world, we could have 8 conferences and each conference would get a bid. You’d have to win your conference to get in. No wildcards. Make the regular season MEAN something.
All that is simply to say, I think an 8-team playoff is probably the sweet spot. Teams 9-16 are not likely contenders, but teams 5-8 could be, under the right circumstances. A lot of people thought (prior to their bowl game) that Georgia was a legitimate contender this year.
4. Notre Dame should get in a conference.
My biggest frustration with the whole system is the changing standard of judgment. One year, the secret and unaccountable committee skips over a conference champion because they think someone else is better. The next year, a conference champion is given priority. The standard seems to be their “feelings.” Notre Dame was a study in “it all depends on how you look at it” this year. They were undefeated, yes, but their schedule was filled with cupcakes. Does anyone believe they’d have survived the SEC, Big-10, or ACC undefeated? I think they’d have had one or two losses, at least, in each of those conferences. They were good this year, but they were not worthy of inclusion in the tourney.
That’s my opinion. I hate that so much in college football is a matter of opinion. I hate the Red Sox, but I have to grudgingly admit that they won it all this year. They deserved it. They had the best record, beat the good guys in Pinstripes, and won the Series. I can hate it, but they won. But in college football, so much is about people’s opinions and feelings. Does the fact that Notre Dame survived a weak schedule undefeated mean more than Ohio State winning the Big-10 with 1 loss?
I think ND should get in a conference and win their way through a conference, earning a spot in the tourney.
5. Ohio State is the most confusing team in college football the last 2 years.
OSU would have and should have been in the CFP the last two years except for the fact that they laid one giant stinker on the field each year. Last year, they came to Kinnick and my Hawkeyes put a 55-24 beatdown on them that was not as close as the score indicated. I love my Hawkeyes, but we were not a great team last year. Had you said, OSU beat us 55-24, I’d have said, “Not that bad, it could have been worse.” Ohio State looked like a Division III school. This year, they did the same thing in a game at Purdue. Honestly, I haven’t seen such poor tackling ever. It looked like OSU thought it was a game of two-hand touch. “Why didn’t he stop running? I touched him!”
I watched games (not many) where OSU looked good. Really good. But against Purdue, they didn’t just look bad, but historically pathetic. So much so that a Big-10 partisan such as myself agreed they didn’t deserve to get into the dance. I think they are a better team (most of the time) than Notre Dame or Oklahoma (again, opinions-opinions-opinions) but the stinker they dropped at Purdue made it very fair for them to be left behind at tourney time.
How can a team have that much talent and every year play one game THAT bad? (In fairness, they played a couple other subpar games, but won them.)
6. UCF should get some respect.
No, I do not think they deserved a spot in the tourney. No, I don’t think they’d be undefeated in a Power-5 conference (probably not even in the Pac-12, which barely qualifies as a Power-5).
Still, it is time we started giving them some respect. Last year, they beat Auburn in a bowl, and this year, without their starting quarterback (a pretty important piece) they gave LSU all they could handle.
UCF is for real. Genuinely a top-12 or top-15 team. Maybe top-10. No, they aren’t national championship caliber, but they are pretty good.
7. Power-5 Conference parity is a reality.
Every one of the Power-5 conferences is within one game of 500 in the bowl season. No conference has dominated and even the Pac-12, generally the weak-sister, has 3 wins this year. The SEC is 6-5, the ACC is 5-5, the Big 10 is 5-4, the Big 12 is 4-3, and the Pac 12 is 3-4. So many of the bowl games came down to the wire and games could have gone one way or the other.
Anyone who claims absolute supremacy of one conference over the others is doing so without the benefit of the facts. What we have is the superiority of two teams – that is pretty clear, and behind them, we have a lot of teams that can win or lose on a particular day. If we replayed all the bowl games this year, the results might be very different, but I am guessing we would continue to have general parity, behind the two leaders of the pack.
Final observation: I expect Alabama to win on Monday night because I am a pessimist, but I think the Clemson Tigers have a shot. If their D-line can give Tua even a fraction of the harassment they gave ND, they can make America happy and slay the dragon.
Factoid: The national champion this year will have a believer at QB. I understand that Tua is a believer and I have read the testimony of Trevor Lawrence who articulates a clear faith as well. Our Lord is probably gonna get mentioned at the end of the game.
Don’t think one year means all that much. The common sense left out is the top item: money. SEC has six in the top ten there, which doesn’t guarantee a winner but is a competitive advantage over time. This is the reason smaller budget schools will not compete in the long haul. I expect that when UF and FSU get their acts together they will suck up more of the talent pool and UCF will falter, but they are doing well.
I live close enough to Uga to see what big money can do in regard to dazzling a recruit.
But…glad to see you are inspired to write, whatever the motivation.
The top ten is a function of reputation more than results. That is one of my chief gripes about college football. It operates on the basis of reputation.
A local complaint, which has died out some. Nebraska has not been relevant in a long time. But because of the name on the jersey, they will often be rated highly in the preseason. I am guessing they will be in next year’s top 25 preseason. Because of the name of the school. Too much in CFB is about reputation, not results.
What? No mention of Texas? I’m confused. Our game against Georgia wasn’t as close as the score indicated. Hook em horns.
OK, Tony, you’re banned for life and beyond here.
Texas, BTW, has the most Athletic revenue of all. Glad to help you guys start to get your money’s worth.
We do appreciate the gift. I thought Georgia looked like they didn’t want to be there. Ifthat had been a semifinal I think Georgia wins.
I cheered for Texas but feel dirty for it
You should never feel dirty about cheering for the GOAT.
I never feel bad cheering for the Yankees. But the Longhorns? Yes.
The one moment football was worth watching this decade was when Bevo charged Uga.
As long as we’re discussing our totally common-sense thoughts: y’know how the thing that puts most games out of reach is a failed onside kick?
It’d be awesome if, instead of having to try to recover one or more onside kicks, a team that scored could choose to *either* get the ball back on their own 1-yard line *or* let their opponent have it on the 20. Now you’re NEVER out of a game, because even if you’re down by 3 scores with 7 minutes left, all you have to do is score ONCE and then you can try to drive up the field against an increasingly tired defense.
Is it unfair? Yes, of course! But would you be *glued to the screen and screaming your head off*? Duh. And you wouldn’t DARE change the channel during the commercial break, either.
And really, it’s a lot more fair than it seems: when teams take possession at their own 1, it’s statistically most likely that their /opponent/ will be the next team to score (for all y’all nerds, the expected point value of 1st and 10 from your own 1 is -0.5).
interesting
One suggestion that I’ve seen tossed around a lot for kickoffs is to make it a 4th and 15 for the scoring team’s offense at the normal kickoff spot. If they want to do an “onside” they can just run a desperation play with their normal offense. If they don’t want to onside they can just send out the punt team.
The 8 team playoff described above is the best solution as it eliminates griping about Power 5 champs being left out, allows for 1 or 2 high quality at-large teams (especially the SEC #2 who will in most years be better than 2 or more of the conference champs) and lets the best Group of 5 team in so we can avoid fake national championship celebrations.. Of course, a conference membership should be a requirement to be in the playoff (no fair getting to 12-0 on the cupcake diet),
College football could be organized into 8 conferences of about 14 to 15 teams (not sure how many teams in D-1). Each conference gets ONE representative in the tourney. You have to win your conference to get in.
If I were pope, that would be it. Regular season would matter. There’d be no secret conclave of men chanting and consulting their fortunes to decide which 4 teams deserve to get in. There would be an ACTUAL, no-question champion.
There are approximately 120 D1 teams. I think 120 is the actual number, but it might be a few more. Guess what 120 divided by 15 is? Yep, 8. Dave Miller for NCAA President.
UGA and OKL sued the NCAA over TV rights in the ’80s and won. The NCAA doesn’t have authority over a lot of decisions member schools make, so I don’t know if schools could be required to join a conference. The NCAA director used to be pope but now is reduced to a sycophant to the wealthy schools and conferences.
Mess with the college football product, the main revenue generator for college athletics, and minor sports suffer greatly. Because uga can fill the stadium 7-8 times a year, generate donations, and sell merchandise I can attend women’s softball and soccer games for free at a fabulous complex. Because of funding provided by football uga can have a championship women’s equestrian team, a sport with few spectators (never been, I’ve seen horses before)
It’s all about the money, not about fairness (it isn’t) or parity (there is none). But they’re happy to keep fan interest alive with discussions like this.
I wish I could dispute that
The only real difference I see that gives the SEC an advantage when it comes to rankings, and thus, the playoff, is that its teams are only required to play eight conference games, while the other power 5 conferences require nine. And if you look at the array of non-conference foes the top SEC teams play, they’re no competition. I’d agree with an 8 team playoff, if the SEC made its schools play nine conference games, and in order to qualify for the playoff, everyone must play at least one power 5 team for a non-conference game. No cheating with teams like the Citadel, Arkansas State and Louisiana Lafayette.
I’m not really excited about the idea of making the season even longer with more playoff games. I believe the FCS has a more extensive playoff system, but the result is never much different than the current FBS playoff in terms of ranking and winning the championship.
But of course, my opinion is probably skewed by the fact that “my” team (Bama) has been in every playoff so far.
Doesn’t have to be longer. There’s a month or more between the last game and the major bowls.
I don’t see a reasonable explanation for expanding the playoffs past four teams if we are just talking about competition. Consider since 2015 there have been 12 college playoff games, counting Monday night’s championship game. Clemson or Alabama have won 11 of the past 12 college playoff games. When these two are not playing each other these playoff games tend to get out of hand fairly quickly.
Consider the # 8 teams since 2015. You have 10-2 Notre Dame in 2015. You have 10-3 Wisconsin in 2016. You have 11-2 USC in 2017. You have 12-0 UCF this year. These four #8 teams have gone 1-3 in their bowl games. I am not persuaded these #8 teams could have been competitive against the #1’s the last four year. By the way, in the playoff era only one #5 team has won its bowl game.
If you want to appease more fanbases, make more money, solve an argument about who the #4 team should be then I get it. However, if we are strictly going by competition on the field there is better argument for reduction than expansion.
It isn’t really about the #8 team, but about #5 and #6.
I don’t see any evidence that #5’s are victimized. Consider the last four #5 teams.
Iowa was 12-1 and #5 in the last 2015 poll. They didn’t play Michigan or Ohio State. It wasn’t until Michigan St. in their final game that they played a top level team. They lost. Then they got rolled 45-16 in the Rose Bowl by Stanford.
Penn State was 11-2 and #5 in the last 2016 poll. They lost to Pittsburg and then to Michigan by 39 points in the regular season. They then got beat by the #9 USC in the Rose Bowl.
Ohio State was 11-2 and #5 in the last 2017 poll. They had lost by 15 to Oklahoma and 31 to Iowa in the regular season. The Buckeyes did whip #8 USC in the Rose Bowl 24-7.
Georgia was 11-2 and #5 in the last 2018 poll. They lost by 20 to LSU and then to Alabama in the SEC championship game. They then lost to #15 Texas in the Sugar Bowl.
I can’t see a lot of evidence these #5 teams would compete in an 8 field playoff. More often than not the #3 and #4 teams are not competitive. Out of the 10 semifinal games played the #1and #2 teams are 7-3 agains the #3 and #4 teams. The lower seeded team wins only 30% of the time. The games have not been close either. The final margin of victories of the #1 and #2 teams have been, 39, 20, 38, 31, 17, 11, and 27.
I get the B1G has been the left out of the playoffs the last two years and that is the rub here. My position is there are always good teams that miss the playoffs in every sport. College football will be no different. I hate to see the playoffs watered down to appease the fanbase of the # 5 team when the numbers prove the #3 and #4 teams aren’t really competing. (By the way, you remove the SEC from the # 3 and #4’s and the rest of the #3 and #4 teams are 1-7 in the semifinals.) Again, there is more evidence for reduction than expansion.
Playing on the field is the only way to determine a true championship. If you look at Clemson, there’s a team that has been in it, and won it, but is rarely tested during the regular season because it is in a weak division in a weak conference. The same media that pushes for the committee selections pushes the “strength of schedule” nonsense. The overall level of competition from top to bottom is much more evenly matched in the Big 10 or the Pac 12 for that matter. The ACC, and especially Clemson’s division, doesn’t really have a strong, competitive team and at that, they had some problems beating mid-level teams like Pitt last year and Syracuse this season. Notre Dame was much more competitive during the regular season against four or five of those ACC teams. And you’re not extending the season. Knock the schedule back to 11 games, everyone plays 9 in their own conference and at least one other power 5 non conference game, and start the week that Army plays Navy. You’d be done at least a week before Christmas.