Originally published at Dave Miller Daily
I just got home from the caucuses (well, from getting some gas for my snowblower and such – we are supposed to get a foot to foot and a half of snow tomorrow) and I have some initial thoughts.
1. When I drove in to the community center, my heart sank. Last time, we parked in the main area and walked in. This time, I dropped my wife off and drove to Kansas City, where I parked and walked to the door. There was a long line to enter and sign in. Many of the people in the line were filling out the registration cards, to switch their registration to Republican so they could vote tonight.
The fact is that the Trump vote that took my precinct was mostly people who were independent joining the party to vote Trump.
2. Initial returns show that basically, my predictions are close to true. Cruz is going to win the Republican vote. Trump is underperforming statewide and Rubio is blasting predictions out of the water. There is still talk that Rubio could surpass Trump when all the votes are counted. That would be huge.
3. The old adage that there are only 3 tickets out of Iowa may be true. Kasich and Christie didn’t really run here and maybe they have a chance in New Hampshire to resurrect their campaigns, but Bush, Carson, Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, and Santorum are basically dead men (and a woman) walking.
4. It’s time for the sanity vote to coalesce. Donald Trump is taking around 24% of the vote here. If you add Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Paul, Bush, and Kasich together, that comes to 70%. That sanity vote needs to join together around either Cruz or Rubio. It’s no secret I’m a Rubio fan, and I think that he is going to play better nationally than Cruz is. Iowa Republicans are famous for going for Huckabee, Santorum, and other evangelicals who are not as popular with the rest of the nation. Very soon, the support for the sanity candidate needs to join together to stop the insanity of the Trump movement.
5. On the Democrat side, the margin is razor-thin. Hillary has a lead thinner than me in high school. Some pundits think it might turn to Bernie by the end of the night as more Johnson County votes are counted – that’s Iowa City, the most liberal city in Iowa (in America?).
6. I was VERY discouraged when I left my precinct, thinking perhaps our results would be repeated throughout the state. But I am VERY encouraged now. Not only did the Trump insanity get dealt a blow, but the story of the night is that my man Marco far exceeded expectations and still has an outside chance of surpassing Trump for second.
My frown has been turned upside down.
Okay, America. We did our job up here in Iowa. We started to restore a little sanity in America by putting the Donald in 2nd and almost in 3rd.
Now it’s up to the rest of you to finish the job. End this nightmare.
Dave,
For county by county results:
http://graphics.latimes.com/election-2016-iowa-results/
I’m not looking! My county went for Lord Sauron and I’m ashamed.
If I were I Iowa I would have caucused for Rubio.
Here in Georgia there’s no party registration so you can show up and vote in either party’s primary. When it rolls around here in March, I may vote cast an anti-Hil vote and vote for sanders…if the dem race is close.
I have actually done what you are talking about when I lived in Texas. Like Georgia, it’s an open primary state. In the 1990 election I voted against Ann Richards in the Democratic Primary and then I voted against her again in the general election. I later felt guilty about it, because I am in no way a Democrat and I do not feel that I should have influenced their choice of their party nominee.
It appears things are going as planned. Trump has helped bring new folks to the table, even though he can’t ultimately win. The Republicans will need those votes to outperform the socialist movement.
But, Dave, your county went with Trump?????!!!!??? What happened? I thought you would turn them? I’m so let down, right now. I really thought you ran Sioux City. sigh. I think we’re seeing a 3 man race for Republican develop…with Cruz being the front runner…not Trump. I bet we’ll see a lot more Republicans dropping out, quick, after New Hampshire. And, I’m rethinking my vote, now. I’ve been for Carson, all along….but…now… BTW, I was wondering how Trump would deal with the defeat. You know, he’s all about being the WINNER, in the crowd. It looked to me like ole… Read more »
Volfan,
Rubio has the best opportunity. He will steal from Cruz, Trump, and all the others. Cruz has made too many enemies in the part of the politic that counts in elections. His policies may appear to be a little too extreme in the current climate as well. It is Rubio’s race to lose at this point. (many still think Jeb has an outside chance as well…but, I just can’t quite see that happening)
Yeah, it scared me to death. My precinct went strong to Trump and I went home with this ominous feeling that the evil would prevail.
But, I did hear that in other precincts nearby, it was not so. When I got home and realized that Trump was losing statewide, I was rejoicing.
I think that Rubio will eventually be the one that the party will coalesce around.
Huckabee was the best choice. He is a godly man and has experience as a governor as opposed to being a senator. The two jobs require different skill sets. I believe that the executive experience gained from being governor better prepares a candidate for being president. Unfortunately, he’s out now. I could live with Rubio but, I’ll probably support Cruz. There was a recent column in the Wall Street Journal that was quite insightful. It was about how Cruz and Rubio are both courting the evangelical vote. Basically, the article said that if you want to find out if an… Read more »
Oh, wow! No, we saw nothing like that in Marion Cty. My daughter joined more than a few other 17 1/2 year olds at the registration tables. They looked full, but it was mostly people there to help. Here is how our vote turned out: Republicans: With 17 of 17 precincts reporting: Ted Cruz – 35% (1011 votes) Marco Rubio – 21% (606 votes) Donald Trump – 19% (539 votes) Ben Carson – 9% (272 votes) Rand Paul – 4% (123 votes) Jeb Bush – 3% (74 votes) Mike Huckabee – 3% (74 votes) Chris Christie – 2% (62 votes)… Read more »
Ours was one of the biggest Trump precincts in the state. They talked about us on FOX or MSNBC. Really scared me.
David, if you read articles and polls, they show that Rubio is the one that has the best chance to beat Hillary.
Apparently, Hillary Clinton saw her shadow this morning so we’re in for 6 more weeks of pantsuits.
-Rob Robinson
You are so bad…and that’s your better days…