Iowa has few marks of distinction – we grow a lot of corn, beef and pork. We have a lot of high-tech industries and an advanced public education system. But for one brief shining moment every four years the eyes of the nation are upon the cities and towns of this state. Our caucuses (a sort of dysfunctional town-hall meeting) are the first stage in the nomination process for president of the United States. Last time around, Iowa Democrats shocked the nation by choosing Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton (who actually dropped to third behind John Edwards) and sending the current president on his way. Republicans also rendered a surprise, slowing Romney’s momentum by giving the win the Mike Huckabee.
I was part of the Huckabee brigade last time. This time, I’m not sure whom to caucus for. The caucuses will take place one week from tonight and I still don’t know which way to go.
The process so far has been simple: Mitt Romney vs. a parade of anti-Romneys. First, Michelle Bachmann sprang forward, then she fizzled. One of the reasons she fizzled was Rick Perry’s entrance into the race. He was the anti-Romney for a few weeks but he faded rapidly. I’ll be surprised if either of them is viable after the caucuses. Herman Cain grabbed a lot of interest and I was just about to jump on that bandwagon when his campaign imploded under the weight of all the accusations that were leveled against him. Then Newt Gingrich came out of nowhere and sprang to a big lead. But you should see the attack ads from the Paul and Perry campaigns. They are eviscerating Gingrich and polls show that the ads are starting to have their effect – I wouldn’t be surprised if the big news next Tuesday is the poor performance of Gingrich. With one week left, there is some talk that perhaps Rick Santorum may be the next anti-Romney – he seems to be getting a little bit of buzz, has worked hard in every one of Iowa’s 99 counties, and has a good organization. He appeals to Iowa’s conservative Christian Republicans. Is it too little, too late for him? A week from tonight we will know. Huntsman mostly skipped Iowa and doesn’t seem to be gaining much traction anywhere.
Ron Paul? He’s Ron Paul. He has a small cadre of passionate (some would say fanatical) support, but he came off kinda nutty in the Sioux City debate, has a foreign policy many Iowans won’t buy into and doesn’t seem to be gaining much traction beyond his supporters. And frankly, his supporters are sometimes so messianic about him that they tend to turn as many people off as they convince. He will probably get 10 or 12% – perhaps a little more.
So, what is an Iowa Republican to do? At this point I’m not sure. Each of the candidates has some appeal and some problems that cause me consternation.
If the caucus was tonight, I would probably support Rick Santorum, but that could change in the next 168 hours. Who knows?
You don’t have to win the Iowa Caucus to become the party nominee. But you need to show well. Most likely, three candidates will be viable coming out of Iowa into New Hampshire. Romney isn’t going anywhere. Gingrich? Maybe, but I’m sensing he’s on the downturn – just a hunch. Perry or Bachmann? Iowa may be their last hurrah. Paul? He’ll get some support, perhaps even a third place. Does Rick Santorum have a chance? Maybe, maybe not.
It’s weird. I’ve been voting in presidential elections since 1976. In every one of those elections, at this point, I had a horse in the race. Sometimes those horses ran well, sometimes they faltered, but I knew which horse was mine! This time, not so much.
It’s a confusing year.
Maybe the end result of it all is to do what David Rogers has suggested so often – do Kingdom work and not put our hope in politics!
He’s right, but I’m still going to the caucus next week. I can’t help myself.
This week is a little bit unique. I’ve put up a sports forum, a movie forum and now a political forum – whatever you want to talk about.
Talk about politics if you so wish. If not, there’s Calvinism and movies and sports and many other things to talk about.
Just go ahead and vote for Romney already! Certainly not the most ideal candidate, but he’s the best of the current crop, both for his policies and sanity, and for actually having a chance of beating Obama.
Were I an Iowan, I’d probably go for Santorum, even though I don’t think he has a chance overall. By the time GA has its primary in March, I’ll probably vote for Romney. He is less flawed than the rest.
Bachmann: Not ready for prime time.
Paul: Don’t trust him.
Huntsman: Nah.
Gingrich: Will be imploding for months on end if nominated.
Perry: A dud.
Why hasn’t Santorum caught fire in the imagination of those Christians who are committed to voting Republican ? I think he has what they are looking for. Unless I am mistaken, he does seem to have a personal integrity and a strong commitment to faith and family, which I think is being overlooked as a strength. Now, I don’t agree with his politics. But I think he is ‘conservative’ in the ways Republicans like. And personally, I think his decency is refreshing compared to some of the candidates. I would hope people take a serious look at him, and not… Read more »
Dave,
Give Santorum an opportunity to get his name out there by finishing well in the Iowa caucuses. He seems to be the only viable social conservative (if you don’t count Gingrich). Maybe he could gain some momentum coming out of Iowa. Thanks for letting us live vicariously through you since most of us don’t live in Iowa and won’t have a chance to influence the election.
Santorum really hurt himself by going to a Christian College near here (called Dordt – several from my church attend there) and behaving like a real jerk. Fortunately, it was before he started climbing the ladder of popularity. I’ve kinda been hoping that he shows well enough to get into the VP sweepstakes. Either Romney or Gingrich would look a little better to me with him as the running mate. The thing is, the waxing and waning of the anti-Romney candidates has been rapid. If he times it just right, it could happen. Gingrich may have peaked about 2 weeks… Read more »
Dordt? You had to go and bring calvinism into it didn’t you? Seriously, I didn’t hear about that incident. Maybe the timing is right for a new surge.
TBH,
whoa…you brought Calvinism into this discussion….ooooooooo. I want everyone to see that it wasnt me.
David
Don’t make me sit the two of you down and read Vol’s jokes!
10-12% for Ron Paul? Come on Dave, every poll indicates a much better showing for Paul- many are thinking he will probably win Iowa. I am not a libertarian and do not agree with all of Paul’s positions, but he is the only one that uses the constitution as a politician should. He has my vote. He should have yours as well! 🙂 I like Santorum… I would be happy if he won the nomination. Romney and Gingrich seem to be willing to do or say anything to get elected- no thank you. Bachmann doesnt have the knowledge needed. Huntsman… Read more »
Matt,
You and William describe these folks about the same as I would.
It kinda makes you feel like Samuel as he asked Jesse, “Do you have another son?”
I will agree with that, CB. We have an increasingly unpopular disaster of a president and this is the best the Republicans could do?
DAVID, it is being said on some of the networks that the Republican candidates are not the Republican ‘A’ team. Is it possible that the “A” team is holding out for 2016 ?
And, why would they do this, unless they feared defeat at the hands of Obama in 2012 ?
Something is not ‘as it should be’ in the Party that has spent years insisting that Obama was incompetent and bad for the country.
People are looking at the Republican Party and wondering if it can get actively fired up for a 2012 victory.
?
None of the polls I’m reading show Paul with that kind of support, but I am comforted that there is no way he will get the nomination.
He really didn’t come off well at the last debate either.
And the racist newsletters thing isn’t helping him much.
http://www.thestatecolumn.com/iowa/poll-ron-paul-defeats-romney-gingrich-in-iowa/
The first post-Christmas poll has Paul gaining…at the Grinch’s expense.
So Marty, I’ve been wanting to ask: When does Paul take responsibility (or denounce) what has been published in his own personal newsletter in previous years?
TBH-
I’m pretty sure he has denounced, disowned, disavowed, and dis_______ those things for years. What language would he need to use (that he hasn’t already used) that would be sufficient?
Marty, (In response to your question)
I did not know that he clearly denounced the articles. If he has, he probably needs to do it in a more public way. Its an issue that’s not going away. Not that it will change my mind about some of his problematic ideas, nor do I think that he has a chance at winning the nomination.
How more public does he have to do it? Go door-to-door?
Mostly, I’ve read his denials that he had much to do with writing the “Ron Paul” newsletter. He claims he is not a racist and that the racist comments that went out in his newsletter were not made by him and he doesn’t know who said them.
That, in and of itself, is a little scary to me.
I agree with the more public announcement. It should be a press conference a la Kennedy and the Catholic Church or Obama and Wright. Statements from HQ are not as effective. That being said, he has been denouncing, disavowing and explaining them for about 10 or 15 years, but the media is acting as if no one had ever heard about it. They came out in the last election cycle, too.
lol @ CB
By the way, Marty, there may be something to the “Paul surge” you mentioned earlier. The other candidates kinda treated him like the funny old uncle at family gatherings, but have recently started to actually train their attacks on him. Mostly, Paul has been the attack dog in the Republican ads here. Now, he’s the focus of some. Isolationist foreign policy, etc. I’ve not seen the newsletter comments raised in political ads, but they are in the press a lot. One thing I will be glad of is that in 1 week, I won’t be getting political calls several times… Read more »
Thx, Dave. Though I won’t try and perform conversions here, there is an equally plausible explanation for Paul’s climb. Once people starting growing weary of hearing varying degrees of the same thing from the other candidates, they start searching out RP and listening to what he says without chatter. I don’t know that he stands a chance at the nomination, but the longer his voice in in the debate and the more delegates he amasses, at least a few things might get implemented. We need the change. We barely get out of Iraq and Foreign Policy mag is calling for… Read more »
Right Marty. And if thought Irag and Afghanistan was rough, Iran will be a living hell for American troops.
Dave,
I thought Rick Santorum did an excellent job at Dordt. The CRC and Dordt college are hardly bastions of Evangelicalism.
http://tinyurl.com/7el7zt8
BTW—Both those guys were past Democratic voters and most polls indicate that 56 percent of all Ron Paul supporters are Democrats in Iowa.
I’m glad to know that it didn’t come off as bad as the reports I read.
The Religious Right and the Gun Lobby are getting a ” follow -up ” lesson. Neither controls anything . They are now saying , ” We can be the swing vote “. The truth is that the Republican Governor of Wisconsin passed the first Concealed Carry Law about 7 weeks ago and over 56,000 (figure about a week old) have applied; but , also way over 500,000 have signed a petition to recall him from office. People are capable of loving two things a once – like Faith & Works. Other State office holders have already been re-called and sent… Read more »
JACK,
my question is WHY
has the Republican Party failed to provide a viable candidate ?
That’s easy, Christiane. Because the Republican Party is a failure, as is the 2-party system. The only difference between the Dems and Pubs are how they want to spend borrowed money. They each lie to their constituents to keep the money flowing.
Come on, Marty. The last time we had a third party candidate we elected Bill Clinton twice!
Or we could be like Italy where 10% of the population is pleased with the choice. :o)
So we had a third-party candidate once and elected Bill Clinton twice, or am I missing something? We had John Anderson in 1980 and elected Reagan, then we had Nader at some point and can’t even remember who was elected, but I think it was Bush over Dukakis.
There are dozens of third-party candidates in every election if you add all the states together. Some are not on the ballot in every state because the 2 main parties have twisted the election laws into a Gordian knot to consolidate their own power. It’s a joke.
Christiane – It’s partly the fault of the Parties to find capable members who Want to run . There always is a surprise in situations like this that’s supposed to throw the opposition off balance. Stay tuned. Marty Duren’s solution in part is getting rid of the two Party System. Just look at Germany and other countries who have multiple parties. What we need is a smarter electorate who will elect someone who Wants the job and is satisfied with the salary and benefits the job provides , is honest ( and their are many) , and is smart enough… Read more »
Jack and Christiane discussing a path for the success of the Republican party is a little like Billy Birch and Bob Ross discussing how to advance Calvinism!
LOL . . .
actually, DAVID, I still hope to live to see a HEALTHY two-party system again in this country . . . but right now, things are not looking too promising.
Dave – I voted Republican last election and many times before. I don’t need to keep a secret about who I might vote for but certain inspirations gouging some Republicans who are SBC are sickening and violate Christian morals in my humble opinion – mine , not anyone elses.
If compared to Obama, every single candidate is “viable” and would be a policy improvement!. It is just that conservatives tend to be pickier about their candidates than democrats who vote party. They reelected Bill Clinton! And right now, froma purely policy pov, Clinton is looking good!
“…Clinton is looking good!”
Lydia,
Knowing a person as I know you, only through the medium of the internet, is a limited understanding of an individual to say the least, I realize.
Nonetheless, in that limited capacity in which I do know you, I know that for you to say “Clinton is looking good” was one of the hardest statements you ever mentally constructed and physically made public. 🙂
You got that right, buddy. notice I clarified it….from a “public policy pov”.
Obama makes Bill Clinton look like Ludwig Von Mises!
Perhaps the most likely candidates to give Romney a run for his money would be Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Michelle Bachman. In that order. Rick Perry may surprise many.
David R. Brumbelow
Sorry, David – I don’t think Perry is going much of anywhere here in Iowa. Could be a surprise, but I don’t think so. We will see.
If he wins, I’ll support him against Obama, but for that matter I’d even vote for Ron Paul against Obama! (That was to make Marty and Matt happy).
lol. That puts you ahead of Gingrich already. ;^)
Marty,
This is off topic, if there is one today. (As you know, I never did worry about that too much.)
Earlier, on another thread, Debbie Kaufman posted a reference was made to something written by Gene M. Bridges.
Have you heard anything of Gene in the last year? He was one of the best back in the day, as you will remember.
I’m just glad when you DON’T post about Bama, CB.
C.B.-
I saw that comment, but I have no idea about Gene. I have thought about him a few times as well.
“for that matter I’d even vote for Ron Paul against Obama!” My hierarchy has been: If Paul wins the nomination, I’ll have to sit out the election. I cannot vote for him, he would be a disaster on multiple fronts. If Perry/Bachman/whoever wins, I will vote for them while cringing. I just don’t like Perry, I don’t trust him. I think Bachman has repeatedly proven herself to be less than reliable. Others on the back seat, I just don’t know enough. If Gingrich wins the nomination, I will vote for him – while holding my nose, and only if he… Read more »
The only thing surprising about Rick Perry is how a nutjob like him became governor of the 2nd largest state in the union. And the only person crazier than Perry in the Republican race is Michelle Bachman. God help us if she were to ever be elected. I would vote for Obama before her. Ron Paul is the only anti-establishment guy in the race. He gets my vote. I like his foreign policy- I think we should stop being the world’s policeman and get the heck out of shooting wars and posturing in other countries, and I think his economic… Read more »
“The only thing surprising about Rick Perry is how a nutjob like him became governor of the 2nd largest state in the union.”
That’s simple. It’s Texas: The LONGHORN NATION.
People I know who have met Michelle Bachmann and talked to her personally would say that your very harsh and judgmental opinions are not fair. And calling Rick Perry a nutjob doesn’t really impress me either. That tone and spirit certainly doesn’t make me more likely to change my views of Paul. Matt and Marty have advocated Paul in a more reasoned way, but I’ve encountered way too many angry, mean and nasty opinions like Ryan’s in support of Ron Paul. Frankly, one of the reasons I have trouble supporting Paul is because of the many Paul supporters I’ve encountered… Read more »
His son, Rand, is our Senator and a good one. A guy that actually worked in the real world as an opthamologist in a small town. So, Ron and his wife did something right. His son got into politics later after establishing himself in business. I think that is a good thing.
Then a reasonable guy should be able to reject the mean and nasty people while being convinced by the more reasonable among us. ;^) Dave- It really may be on no consequence, but I feel the same way Ryan does. I’m so tired of the same old thing, but people tell me I’m throwing my vote away for not choosing one of the finalists. It’s like there are always 2 lame horses in the race and people mock me for wanting to choose a car instead. I really, honestly do believe that a vote for any Republican except Paul is… Read more »
I don’t believe the idea that the two parties are identical. There is a significant differences. Ultimately, I just don’t think Paul can get the job done. I agree with him on many issues – but think he would be ineffective as a leader. Curmudgeons don’t always do well when they get the captain’s chair. And in those areas that I disagree with him – his dangerous isolationism, for instance – I am pretty strong in my disagreement.
Dave- If I may elaborate. When I say there is no difference, I don’t mean surface differences. There are plenty, but down deep both Dems and GOPers put party before their constituents, are bought and paid for by special interests and big business, will expand the size of government at the same rate–the only difference being what part, work avidly to consolidate power within the executive branch, borrow and spend to no end. Neither party cares about a balanced budget, neither party has any idea how to handle the country’s problems, and each behaves completely hypocritically depending whether their party… Read more »
If:
1) A Republican wins the presidency, and
2) Doesn’t make some serious moves to reduce the deficit and bring spending under control, etc,
I’ll probably join you next go round. I’m not quite ready to give up yet.
OK, forget football jokes, raggin’ and gaffs for a moment. Marty Duren and I have had a couple of serious personal conversations about American politics in the past. Marty, I think about those times often of late. Here is why I am about where he is as far as the Dems and the GOP being about the same. This may not be why he is where he is, but here is the reason I am pretty much there. I believe that abortion on demand is the absolute bane, abomination and downfall of this nation. The Republicans have been using right… Read more »
Awww Dave that hurts… 🙂 I’m sorry to come off mean spirited, but I stand by my statements. Perry and Bachman are examples of the worst kind of Republican pandering to the “Religious” Right- which died an ugly death about 20 years ago but is still walking around like a zombie at every Republican HQ. Politicians like Perry and Bachman make fools out of us on a regular basis by cloaking their politics in a weird mix of Jesus, nationalism, and war rhetoric. We had 8 years of W- who I believe to have had a sincere and legit conversion… Read more »
Romney is a pol. He is good looking, smart, experienced in business and politics. Changing his beliefs and positions has hurt him. His Mormonism hurts him, unfortunately, with many. Paul comes off as crazy. Perry comes off as stupid. I cannot remember a bigger dud in Presidential campaigning in all my life. Huckabee – yay! He is not running. That’s one big prayer that was answered this year!! Bachmann is smart convictional but a “microwave candidate” and is thus, gaffe prone. Santorum is expereienced and convictional. I don’t know why is not appealing, but he’s not appealing to me. Gingrich… Read more »
Marty, It is all about degrees. Which party takes us hurdling down the road to complete socialism the quickest? We have been on that road for 80 years. I see no turning back from it now that the middle class is dependent on government. So the question is…how fast you want to get there? You want the government choosing your doctor for you? Bailing out a bankrupt Toys R Us? If you see no difference then why not vote Obama? I say vote for Paul in the primary and send a message but the general election is too important. You… Read more »
Lydia- You are making the most common mistake of all by saying the choices are only between a democrat and a republican. That simply is not the case. I will no longer vote for either of them when there are better candidates with other parties. I will vote for Paul in the primary (if he’s still in it). If he isn’t, I’ll skip the primary and vote for the best person in the race (not the one everyone tells me has the best chance of winning. If you feel socialism is the biggest problem in this election, we probably won’t… Read more »
Marty,
I am really glad to hear someone besides me saying what you are saying both in this thread and on your blog. I was beginning to think I was either deluded, crazy, or alone…possible all three.
Ryan,
I am tired of Republican lip-service also, but I do have a question for you.
Why did you make this statement:
“And the only person crazier than Perry in the Republican race is Michelle Bachman. God help us if she were to ever be elected. I would vote for Obama before her.”
Marty, NDAA is nothing new in practice. FDR did it without such an ‘act’. the difference is that many do not believe we are at war with militant Islam. We are and our strategies have to change. Islam is incompatable with our Constitution if it is practiced according to the Koran. But I know many conservatives who agree that the Bill of Rights have been shredded. Let me put it this way, with such socialism as Obama is championing, there is no turning back. People will not give up security for liberty once they have the faux security. They will… Read more »
Lydia: You are correct to identify the continued assault on economic freedom as the major issue for this election. That assault is the one thing that never seems to go in reverse. The larger the share of personal income and property taken by local, state and federal government, the less money people have to pursue the things that interest them. This should be of interest to all people, regardless of the particular set of interests that they may wish to pursue. It should be of an interest to Christians who want to fund the propagation of the Gospel, the building… Read more »
Latest polls here in Iowa are showing Romney solidifying his lead, Santorum surging and Gingrich sinking. Perry and Bachmann seem to have become irrelevant.
Paul? Polls are all over the place with him. Depends on if some of the attacks on him take hold as they have done with Gingrich. Racism-based attacks are potentially powerful, whether legitimate or not.
Polls are notoriously fluid, but the latest (and last) pre-caucus polls show interesting movement in Iowa. Over the last week or so, big changes have occurred. The biggest surprise was the last two days of the poll, which show Romney holding on to his 25% support which has been pretty consistent. The big surprise was that Santorum has now moved into second place in polling and is up to about 22%. Paul has fallen some in the latest polls, but he’s still third. Not sure if this is normal fluctuation or if there is a loss of momentum from the… Read more »