Will it be Ohio State or Alabama?
- Will the committee send up the white smoke and surprise us all by selecting Southern California?
I don’t know. By the time church is done today, I will. I have the selection show on my Tivo and the interwebs will be screaming it. I’m glad I won’t have to watch the whole show as they drag out the naming of four teams over 60 minutes. Really?
And we know this – there will either be weeping and wailing coming out of Columbus or Tuscaloosa.
Before I make my point, let me make my prediction.
I will make the startling prediction that Clemson will get in! And Georgia. And Oklahoma. If any one of those is left out it will be not only a shocker but something of a scandal. Now for the biggie.
I am fairly confident Ohio State will get the fourth spot.
It would be a little more of a sure thing if Ohio State had won by 21 last night, or 28, instead of playing a fairly sloppy game. But they did dominate the game, if not the scoreboard. If not for the local boy (Van Ginkel – why didn’t he go to Iowa?) it would have been a lot worse.
Frankly, I think an Ohio State-Alabama game would be epic – if the “good” OSU team showed up (and the early season Alabama team). But the factors in making this choice are not right and wrong, justice, or anything of the kind. The committee sits in a room and makes up its own rules as it goes. That’s my point. I spent too much time this last week watching sports “experts” opine and reading about it. There was a pretty general consensus that formed, with a few outliers.
1. The committee tends to value quality wins over losses.
I was horrified to hear Kirk Herbstreit (I think it was him) say that Auburn, with 2 losses, should be ranked #1 in the nation after the Alabama win. He simply ignored the fact that they had lost 2 games – one was to Clemson, wasn’t it? Just discounted their two losses. The committee tends to do that. They value big wins.
Alabama had very few tough games on their schedule. Their strength of schedule rating was pretty low. The SEC is down this year. They have only wins against MSU and LSU on their schedule. OSU had regular season wins against Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan. Now, Wisconsin.
FSU may have killed Bama’s chances. When they met, FSU was ranked high, but now, they are a 6-6 team who didn’t win against a quality team all year. That win means nothing.
The general consensus I heard was the belief that Ohio State beating the last undefeated Power 5 team in the Conference championship would vault them over Alabama. I know the Big 10 West was not that good, but Wisconsin was. Their defense could slow anyone down. Their offense was spotty – that’s why they aren’t playing in the tourney.
2. The committee will choose geographical balance.
If the committee chooses Alabama, all 4 teams will be in what is generally called the South (Oklahoma is sort of Southwest, I suppose). It’s all about money, and I don’t think they are going to want to appeal only to 1/4 of the country.
3. The Big 10 Conference championship shouldn’t be sneezed at.
I know that some SEC fans labor under the delusion of SEC superiority, but I even heard Paul Finebaum say this year that the B1G (I hate that trademark) was the top conference. Last year it was the ACC. But it is unlikely that they will leave out the Big 10 (much better) champion to add a second team from a conference in a down cycle.
OSU would sure like a second crack at Oklahoma, to teach that Baker Mayfield a little sportsmanship and respect! That would be a great game. Of course, when you are dealing with a committee behind locked doors, accountable to no one, anything can happen. They could put Tennessee in there – just to watch the dumpster fire!
Having said all that…
The system stinks. I hate that the national championship will be partially decided by a bunch of men (and women?) sitting in a secret room and picking the teams. The NCAA basketball tourney does that, but there are more distinct criteria and the teams that cry about being left out were only going to hope to win a game, maybe two. No team that was left out was ever going to win.
Either Alabama or Ohio State could easily win it all. The first year of this tournament, TCU might well have been able to win the whole thing, and they were left out. When there are only 4 teams chosen, and a committee, with NO RULES, simply picks four teams based on whatever whims they have at the moment, the chance that a fifth team that has a chance to win it all is left out is high.
The NCAA National Championship should be decided on the FIELD, not in a boardroom.
Teams should play their way in and play their way out. Win games to qualify and lose games to be eliminated. Today, either OSU or BAMA will be eliminated from a title opportunity either could win by a committee decision – and that stinks.
The Miller Solution
I have what seems to me to be a very simple solution. There are some options to it, but the core is set. Honestly, I don’t know if I heard this somewhere else – I likely did. I am not claiming this is completely original.
1. Expand the playoff to 8 teams.
Teams that don’t get in can continue the Bowl series as it has always been. Round 1 begins before New Years. Round 2 on New Years. Championship as it has been.
And, let’s face it, no team outside the top 8 is likely to win, right?
2. Put the champions of the Power 5 conferences in the tournament.
Win and you are in.
The only contingency here is the rankings – who gets #1, #2, etc. That might be unfair, but whatever. You are in the tourney and you have to win 3 games to win it all.
3. That leaves 3 teams to fill out the bracket. There are two ways to go with that.
- Devote a “Cinderella” spot to the lesser conference team that is highest ranked. This year, Scott Frost and UCF would likely be in. Then you could have two wild cards determined by some kind of rankings formula – or by a committee.
- Or, simply designate 3 other conferences that seem to have the next level of teams and take their champs. Win and you are in. I like this one because it rewards winning in the regular season and takes it completely out of the hands of some random bunch of people in a secret room.
- And yes, you could tell Notre Dame that if they want to get into the playoff, they need to get into a conference.
It irks me that we are awaiting the college of cardinals to send up a signal and choose their candidates. There are more than 4 worthy candidates for the national championship. There are actually 6 – Clemson, Georgia, Oklahoma, OSU, Alabama, and USC. You could even argue that one-loss Wisconsin should be a 7th team. I hate that the national championship will be influenced by “judges” who are often biased, sometimes, corrupt, and always confusing.
I apologize if writing about football on what some consider “the Sabbath” offends.
I posted this and will ignore it from now until after church. So, worship God and we will talk after its all over.
Great post.
I agree with expanding the playoff to 8 teams. Drop 1 game from the regular season.
College football is still fun. Still about sports.
I am told Alabama got in.
Hope they lose.
The system stinks. My point remains.
Hater. Roll Tide!
You have no idea.
There should be 8 teams.
However, there should be a rule that conferences should not get a bid if they can’t do simple math to count the number of teams in their conference correctly.
Cute. When the Big 10 expanded, they (and the Big 12 as well) realized they couldn’t keep changing the # every time they changed the amount of teams, so they just said that Big 10 is a brand, not a #. Big 12 is the same. It is because there is the Big 10 and the Big 12 that the # can’t change. The joke used to be, when Penn State was added, that we were the Big Ten…and Northwestern. However, in recent years they’ve become competitive in both basketball and football. That’s why they started using that heinous B1G… Read more »
By the way, if anyone wants to come on here and gloat that I was wrong, I will admit that they didn’t do as I thought. However, I will say two things. 1. The theme throughout the week was that if Wisconsin won big or if Ohio State won convincingly, Alabama sits. OSU would have been in with a convincing win. The fact that they won a little sloppily fits in with everything people were saying. Wisconsin wins, they are in. OSU wins big, they are in. OSU wins close – its a crapshoot. 2. I admitted in the post… Read more »
OSU was cheated out of their spot because bama, small letters intended, and ANY other team, from a school of ANY size, will ALWAYS trump The Ohio State University because it is, and will ALWAYS be Ohio Against The World.
“Do we really want a secret group, with no accountability, for reasons no one understands, picking who gets a chance?”
For a minute there I thought you were back on SBC stuff.
Ohio State lost twice. What’s so hard about that?
Alabama had 0 top 10 wins and was not a conference champion. OSU had 2 top 10 wins and was conference champ in a tougher conference.
Ohio State losing twice, like Auburn losing thrice, outweighs who beat whom.
But a less subjective system would be better.
Either adjust the “our conference is better than yours, and the five of us are way better than the five of you” system entirely, or create something that equalizes so that a UCF can be plainly in or out.
And watch out for down years in the SEC, when only half the national championship contenders come from that conference. Because someone’s got to be last….that’s why there’s Arkansas.
When the committee put 2 loss Auburn ahead of undefeated Wisconsin, they showed that # of wins and losses isn’t the issue.
If you go on a strict W/L system, it encourages teams to play weak schedules not tough ones.
#bamadoesthat
Auburn beat two number 1 teams in the space of 14 days. Pretty impressive…unprecedented, perhaps.
OSU got the stew beat out of them by an unranked team.
Wisconsin…not so impressive.
I agree with you. Eight team playoff. Pick eight conferences. Conference champs make the tourney. Make Notre Dame join a conference.
On other thing. If your starting QB grabs his jock strap and shouts vulgarities at the other team, he forfeits his candidacy for the Heisman Trophy and is ineligible to play any post-season games.
I agree. Even if he can’t win the Heisman he can still be President or run for the Senate in Alabama!!
Not president, Dave… he’s not old enough yet
Well, you know… It’s not a vote for Pastor-in-Chief, but just a Heisman, so you shouldn’t have a problem with his antics, right?
I actually don’t have a problem with at least including sportsmanship as a factor in the Heisman.
Some of us do. Some of us have a problem with it. Gentlemen, there is a big difference between Alabama football and Alabama politics. Personally, I wish BAMA had stayed out of the playoffs this season. We need to heal up and re-tool for next season, come back and win our 17th National Championship straight-up and with no blemish on the trophy. Alabama wins football games. That is why we have enemies. We win. Same is true for the NY Yankees. They win. That is why people hate them. Winners are consistent. When they have a bad season, they come… Read more »
Dave Miller,
I agree that sportsmanship should be a factor in the most prized individual trophy in college football. Character still counts, or at least it should. I realize it counts for little in the American political scene. Sadly, it does not always count in SBC life. However, it should.
Character should always count.
I am curious as to what evidence was considered to support an accusation that the “judges are biased, corrupt and confusing.” Surely, a respected pastor would not use such offensive assertions to attack the character of a person who merely had a different opinion about the quality of a sports team without some applicable facts? Have we forgotten that university sports teams are composed of unpaid “student athletes” who represent their particular school, its colors, and student body; not a conference and certainly not the nation? Extending the season for the gratuitous satisfaction of sports fans would be detrimental to… Read more »
Yes, I had forgotten about the student athlete stuff. Maybe it got drowned out by coaches who are paid $8 million/yr., or boosters who can get the univ prez fired…stuff like that. This is big business. The colleges are incidental.
Tommy,
“I am curious as to what evidence was considered to support an accusation that the “judges are biased, corrupt and confusing.”
Duh. The evidence is simple.
If subjective opinions are different than ours – THEY must be biased.
If we don’t like another’s subjective decision – it must be currupt.
But at any rate – let’s all admit it is confusing.
?
That was intended to be a lighthearted explanation as to why people assert that subjective decisions they don’t like are corrupt or biased.
I do think we can all agree though that the process is confusing.
“Extending the season for the gratuitous satisfaction of sports fans would be detrimental to the academic progress of the student players involved and an unfair demand on their time.”
Tommy Ellison,
That may be the funniest thing I have read in 2017, except that “FSU is a contender” at the first of the season. You are joking, right?
What a joke this whole deal has become. The Big 10 was probably the toughest conference in the college football in 2017. Remember last year when the committee said that, in the future, teams that played cupcakes would be penalized by the committee. The Big Ten told their schools not to schedule these teams. But the SEC decided – with Alabama leading the way – to continue to schedule Creampuffs ( Mercer the next to last week of the season for Alabama.) And we get to listen to Nick tell us about “their body of work”???? What a pant load!… Read more »
“It has become painfully obvious that ESPN, with there financial investment in the SEC, seems to run the show.”
The money makes the decisions.
ESPN running the show has been painfully obvious for many years.
I personally don’t think that if you didn’t win your conference that you should be in the playoffs.
Not the way the playoff system is currently configured…
Lol. Maybe they should do like all other major college and pro sports do and award conference champs in addition to a few “wildcards”.
I like the suggestion this been floating around for a while that all of the power five conference is get a berth and then there are 3 at large.
But even then there will probably be some subjectivity involved with regard to the at-large bids.
New Year’s Day has become the biggest day in NCAA Football. There’s no doubt about that is there? Has anyone noticed the Bowl lineup for New Year’s Day? Outback Bowl is Michigan v. SOUTH CAROLINA Peach Bowl is UCF v. AUBURN Citrus Bowl is Notre Dame v. LSU Rose Bowl is Oklahoma v. GEORGIA Sugar Bowl is Clemson v. ALABAMA Don’t you guys think it would be better to call New Year’s Day the SEC SHOWCASE DAY instead? Seems the natural thing to do to me. What say ye, Dave Miller and Dave Cline? LONG LIVE THE SEC!!! ROLL TIDE… Read more »
Hey, Dave Miller,
I want to congratulate you on having the best of both worlds. Iowa is playing Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankees Stadium in the Bronx. Maybe the Hawkeyes will get the George M. Steinbrenner Trophy.
Tremendously frustrating season this year. Hawkeyes went 7-5. There were 3 or 4 games when the Hawkeyes showed up and I thought – this is a REALLY good team. Almost beat Penn State and then beat up Ohio State.
And then we’d play a game against a bad team and look terrible. Like a roller coaster.
But I won’t be talking football right now. I’m all about Giancarlo Stanton and the NY Yankees.
Army – Navy game today at 3:00 P.M. An American tradition. Surely no one will make anything political of it.
GO NAVY!!
Lol. Surely not. If they do, that’ll be SAD!
Well, it isn’t the best football, but….
Hey now. Some of us ENJOY the triple option!
I’m not superstitious (maybe I am) but Duke is getting beat by 10, I turn on the game and Duke immediately hits 2 threes.
Am I cursed?
I’m torn. I love to watch Duke lose and they are down 2 with 30 seconds to go. But I’m afraid that by watching, I could cost BC the game.
Well, that was fun.
Boston College was my second favorite college basketball team today. I’m glad they won.
(Any team that plays Duke immediately becomes my second favorite team for the duration of the game.)
Go Tarheels!
Army beat Navy tonight. It was a good game. I always try to watch that game. I tend to cheer for both teams. I think I do that because this time next year some of those young men may have given their lives for America.
Ladies and Gentlemen, as you know tomorrow the Bowl Season begins. In order to enhance your Bowl Season pleasure please give your attention to what the Great Crimson Tide has done for football in spite of what Roy Moore and Doug Jones have done to embarrass the Alabama political scene. Alabama landed six players on the 2017 American Football Coaches Association All-America Team, it was announced Wednesday. Senior linebacker Rashaan Evans and junior defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick were first-team selections while senior center Bradley Bozeman, junior defensive lineman Da’Ron Payne, senior punter JK Scott and sophomore offensive lineman Jonah Williams… Read more »
Oh yeah and by the way. In case you guys didn’t know this. St. Nick Saban has had more players to be named All-Americans than any other coach in the last 10 years.
I am sure you all already knew that, but just in case you didn’t, I wanted to share that important news with all of you as we all get ready for the Bowl Season.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Here are you Bowl Games for today. Enjoy.
BTW, didn’t Boise State and Oregon once say “We want BAMA” ??????? 😉 😉 😉
Dec. 16 R+L Carrier New Orleans Bowl: Troy vs. North Texas, 1 p.m. (ESPN)
Dec. 16 AutoNation Cure Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State, 2:30 p.m. (CBSSN)
Dec. 16 Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State vs. Oregon, 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
Dec. 16 Gildan New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State vs. Marshall, 4:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Dec. 16 Raycom Media Camellia Bowl: Middle Tennessee State vs. Arkansas State, 8 p.m. (ESPN)
Let me also plug the D-II championship at 5 PM Eastern.
Tune in and root for West Florida — they’re only in their second year as a program (!!) — to be clear, I don’t mean “oh, this is their second year in D-II.” I mean it’s their second year playing football *at all.*
I want to revive this post to make sure that all of you Ladies and Gentlemen who administrate, post, and read SBC VOICES are aware that UGA beat the evil Oklahoma Sooners and BAMA beat Clemson in the playoff games.
Therefore, on Monday, January 8, 2018 BAMA and UGA play each other for the National Championship.
Also, in case you did not know, both BAMA and UGA are SEC teams. Yes, Sports Fans, that’s right. SEC.
LONG LIVE THE SEC!!!
ROLL TIDE ROLL!!!!!
Universe is back in order.
None of that changes the illegitimacy of the Tide’s inclusion in the tourney. Georgia needs to win or people with integrity will have to declare the University of Central Florida the REAL national champion. They beat Auburn who soundly whooped the Crimson Crud.
Methinks thou hast a point, Sir Dave.
Dave Miller, UCF beat Auburn. Yes, that is true. That only proves that on any given day, under the right circumstances, a lesser capable team can beat an superior team. Auburn beat Georgia and Alabama. They were hungry. They outplayed both teams. However, in the SEC Championship (First of two this season. Second one will be on January 8.) Georgia defeated Auburn. It is true that I did not want BAMA to be in the playoffs this season. They lost to Auburn. Nonetheless they soundly defeated Clemson, the number 1 team in the NCAA. Now they play Georgia who defeated… Read more »
Georgia has to win because I don’t want Sooners beaten by a losing team.
C. B. is the nicest Alabama fan I know even if he is insufferable during bowl and playoff season.
Auburn was in a second tier bowl, listless and uninspired with little to gain. They had their shot and were soundly beaten.
You are right as the rain, William Thornton.
Auburn just went through the motions of playing football. Their loss to UGA was the end of their season. The Bowl game held no real incentive for them. The University of Auburn collected their part of the “gate.” and went home.
They will retool and come back. That’s what SEC teams do. They come back. What all the Lesser Conferences need to fearfully ponder is how terrible it will be for them if all the SEC have their comeback year in the same season. 😉 😉 😉
“Auburn just went through the motions of playing football…”
I heard people say the same thing about ‘bama a few years back when OU whooped them in the Sugar Bowl, making Bob Stoops the only BCS era coach to have a collection of all 5 BCS bowl trophies.
Here in Missouri, we call that “bull.”
Players still want to play and teams still want to win, especially on a national stage. Auburn didn’t lose b/c they were in a second-tier bowl. The SEC just isn’t *that* superior…
Mike Bergman, Auburn has always played on a “national stage.” They are the SEC. Any game an SEC team plays in is on a “national stage.” However, Auburn had an opportunity to play in the playoffs this year and fell to UGA. The game they played against UCF was not with the intensity of which they played UGA and BAMA. The SEC had 9 teams in Bowl Games this year. That in itself speaks to their superiority. Eventually even Missouri will realize they are in the greatest Conference in the Football Universe and rise to the top, or at least… Read more »
Why would I be patient about Missouri in the SEC? I’m an Oklahoma alum (though MO born and bred).
And we ran all over a top SEC defense… we just didn’t have a defense to keep them from running all over us in return.
I think Auburn mailed it in, based on the quarter I watched. But is it not the sign of a better team that they show up to play, whoever they play? UCF was definitely better than Auburn that day. I’d love to see them take on any of the top 4… but the TV money is the rub: some years, there are more than 4 teams that should be considered. Some years, there’s really fewer than 4. But the schedulers and advertisers need to know how many games and when they’ll be. Can you imagine? “Well, this year we think… Read more »
Well, Mike Bergman, I just thought you might be happy now that you are in the state that houses a SEC team. That is a blessing in and of itself.
Mike, think rationally for moment. Will it ever happen that any conference other than the SEC have both teams in the National Championship?
You already know the answer to that question. “No. There is no conference among the Lesser Conferences capable of such a feat.”
Doug Hibbard, You are right. It is about the money. And who has the money? The SEC. Not only does the SEC have the money. We have the best players, best coaches, best stadiums, best host states, best fight songs, best tailgate food, best mascots, and best fans. Face it Ladies and Gentlemen, the SEC is best. That’s why Bowl Game administrators want SEC teams. We draw the largest gates and we play the best football and we don’t tear up the cities we come to because we are not only the SEC, but most of us are Southern Baptist… Read more »
I have always felt bad for SEC players, many of whom have to take pay cuts when they go to the NFL
That’s true Dave Miller. Some of them do have to take pay cuts. But it is not that bad. They can still go back home during the summer and make commercials. They make out OK.
Stephen Newell, David Worley, and I put our heads together (two SEC fans generally make 1 normal intelligent human being together) and devised a system. There are evidently about 129 or so D1 teams. Divide the D1 into 8 16-team conferences. NCAA can make it happen. The 8 conference winners make the tourney. We disagreed a little. I said you could still have the bowl games with the teams that aren’t in the tourney. Worley disagreed (making him, by definition, wrong). The NCAA championship needs to be won on the field, not in a room with a bunch of yahoos… Read more »
That would be good. BAMA would still be one of the teams in the National Championship game every 3 out of 5 games. The other 2 would be either UGA, FL, TN, LSU, or Auburn.
The SEC would still dominate the playoffs.