Predicting the future is a dangerous thing. I have a copy of Sports Illustrated that predicts that the Atlanta Falcons will defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers in the upcoming Super Bowl. Atlanta was to have defeated the Vikings in the NFC title game. These football experts get fewer predictions right than a broken clock. I track it.
I lack clairvoyance and am no great expert at the SBC’s inner workings. I have often not foreseen the issues that would arise. Who knew that 2018 would see the downfall of icons and heroes, presidential campaign tactics scraping the barrel in ways we have never seen, the transition of entity leadership at an unprecedented pace, and the explosion of the #metoo movement? I did not foresee the major events of 2018 so I am not prepared to try to predict the major events of 2019.
But I do think there are certain questions that we will have to answer, trends we will need to face. I would like to address 10 such questions, with brief commentary.
Question 1: Who will lead our entities?
This is the key question in many minds. We finally found a leader for our flagship entity, the International Mission Board, but LifeWay, the Executive Committee, and Southwestern remain in transition, with the planned retirement of Dr. Kelly at New Orleans set for this summer.
As far as I know, none of these entities is close to making a hire, though sometimes they surprise you.
Question 2: Will the SBC ever integrate its leadership ranks?
Many of us have been hoping that with 5 entity leadership positions open, there might be serious consideration given to minority candidates and even a minority hiring.
The response to this has been discouraging. I have been called a racist for even suggesting we consider hiring minorities! And the subtle response has often been that considering hiring minorities as entity presidents is “affirmative action” – hiring the less qualified (minority) candidate over the more qualified (white) candidate. “Shouldn’t we just hire the best man for the job?” is the mantra, with the tacit assumption that this refutes minority hiring.
The fact is that there are highly qualified and capable minority candidates for each of our entity leadership positions. We would not have to “settle” to have a president who is not white.
I only hear bits of information, but I have asked people “in the know” and as best I can tell, no minority candidate has been given serious consideration by our search committees yet. There seems to be a consensus among those I talk to that we are not going to see any minority hires any time soon
May we be proven wrong.
Question 3: Will the coming political season tear us apart as the last one did?
The 2016 political campaign was the most divisive thing I have seen in the SBC since the Conservative Resurgence. We share the blame. Those of us who are not enamored with the current president reacted with extreme rhetoric when his star began to rise in the GOP, questioning how Christians could support a man so lacking in moral character. The tide has shifted and now, the biblical fidelity of anyone who doesn’t support Donald Trump is called into question by some.
I am not interested in arguing politics today. My question is not about the merits of the Trump administration, or about immigration or refugees or any of the issues that have divided us. My question is whether we can find a way to love one another and honor one another even while we disagree with politically. We failed miserably in 2016 and it was an ugly time. Will we do better in the coming season?
Can we differ politically without anathematizing one another?
Question 4: Will a “regular guy” run for Pastors’ Conference president again this year?
I have appreciated the last two PC presidents’ focus on biblical preaching. This year’s theme is the Beatitudes.
But I am hearing a rising tide of talk supporting the idea of having a “regular guy” run for PC president again, someone who is not part of or blessed by the Mega-metro group.
To be clear, I have no part in this movement nor do any of the team from the 2017 PC. That wore us out. Not one of our guys has any desire to do that again, not in the foreseeable future.
But I am hearing “chatter” that makes me think this might happen this year.
Question 5: Will the SBC continue to be in the thrall of Mega-Metro Pastors?
The SBC is made up of small and medium size churches but it led by a coterie of megachurch pastors. The numbers are staggering. I believe it is in the neighborhood of about 96% of our 47,000 churches that run less than 400 on a Sunday morning and there are around 200 megachurches. Mega-metro is a fellowship group that meets to discuss ministry, evangelism, and other issues that come up. These megachurch pastors are good men who do great work.
I do not think there should be enmity between large churches and small in the SBC – we should be partners. But our presidents and key leaders are disproportionately drawn from the 200 megas. The SBC is a train whose conductors and engineers are tend to be from the mega-metro churches while the rest of us are passengers. (I am speaking of leadership here.)
This can only be so if we, the majority, acquiesce to it. Will we continue to do so? Or will we take part in leadership, to take our place as engineers and conductors and not just as passengers?
Question 6: Will the CR reignite?
The recent brouhaha at SBU raised the specter that the Conservative Resurgence may be anything but a dead issue in the SBC. It would be foolish to think that theological drift ended 20 years ago, but who knows where this will go?
Perhaps the SBU issue will be a tempest in a teapot or perhaps it will reveal that theological issues still exist in theological institutions and that greater oversight is needed.
I do not have an answer here but I certainly have questions.
Question 7: Whither Complementarianism?
I consider myself a strong, biblical complementarian, but to listen to certain pockets of the SBC, I am egalitarian, because I do not ascribe to all their narrow applications of complementarian dogma.
I believe God made men and women to complement each other; that men are given leadership at home and in the church, but the devil is in the details. Can a woman lead singing in a church? Can a woman lead in prayer? What does, “let the women keep silent…” mean? Is there any cultural aspect to any of this? I have labored long and hard to understand the biblical passages on men and women and I have strong convictions, but they are not the same convictions as some others. As complementarianism becomes less socially popular and as some with more extreme views dig in their heels, how will we respond?
The SBC is going to struggle with this. Witness the discussion about whether a woman could serve as president of the SBC (something no woman I have talked to or read about has expressed an interest in doing). Our BF&M defines us as complementarian but it doesn’t define exactly what that means.
What kind of complementarians will we be?
Question 8: What will happen to Traditionalism?
I am not a Traditionalist and have opposed the behavior and deportment of the often dysfunctional Traditionalist movement in the SBC. I was shocked and saddened to see the surliness, the derogation, the violation of biblical commands to honor one another than became the stock in trade of many of the leaders of that movement. It was rising to a head last spring then, poof, the movement just imploded.
As one who was a critic of the movement, I would be expected to gloat, or at least to be relieved. To the surprise of many, I find it unfortunate. Men like David Allen promote a scholarly alternative to Calvinism and we are a better denomination when soteriological options are articulated well. The problem was not THAT Traditionalism was articulated but HOW it was done.
A theologically robust non-Calvinism expressed within the boundaries of Christian dialogue, free of the rancor, pettiness, and hostility that was all too common, would be good for the SBC.
Will we see it? I hope so.
Question 9: Will any more dominoes fall?
I hope not, but who would have thought we would see some of the moral failures and personal kingdom collapses that we saw in 2018? Lord, help us, but sometimes people fail, even heroes.
Will another show his feet of clay? Will I shed more tears when I hear that a friend whom I deeply respect has fallen? Will more #metoo scandals show our failures?
We would like to think this is all in the past, but the flesh never is.
Question 10: Will the slide end?
The SBC Annual meeting has been a yearly time of weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth over our statistical decline. Will it ever end? Are we on a neverending slip-and-slide trip to denominational oblivion or can we pull out of this dive and turn things around?
Again, I don’t have an answer to that but I do think it is an important question.
Do you have a question to add?
Do you have an answer to one of my questions?
Talk amongst yourselves.
Will Southwestern take down those hideous stained glass windows? And will we ever know how many of the schools Dead Dea Scraps are fake?
Those questions will only be answered when the new president is hired.
I would suggest that how we answer the first 9 will determine the answer to number 10.
Doug,
And i repy that is exactly the wrong answer. It is an anti-answer.
It implies that salvation in SBC CHUrches hinges on how good SBC leaders are, who are entity heads are, and if some SBC PEOple dont squabble over politics too loud, etc.
I can confidently say that not one newly baptised member in my church in 2018 knows or cares anything about this list. And I can assure you that if an unsaved person is using this list as a reason not to get saved and baptized, its just a smokescreen.
Furthermore, not one pastor is failing to reach the Gospel because of these things.
Not one church member is refraining from witnessing because of any of these things.
Here is what I am seeing not only in my own church and community but aso hearing from other sources: Christians, or those who call themselves that [and I do not knowwhich is which] do not really grasp the Gospel nor can they articulate it nor do they articulatre it if they do know it. In other words and simply, the people are not being discipled.
NOW that is a general statement for i am sure that there are some [look at JDGrear’s church for ex.] that are being discipled.
Yes, I am pointing at the shepherds of the flock.
And in the past, and probably still today, the quest for numbers has led us to seek quantity over quality.
And that worked for a while in a ‘christian’ USA but the tide has turned. People dont feel the need to be in church to up their social status. Maybe now even the opposite in some places and that number is growing. And the faux christians are, like they have been for years, no longer attending regularly and maybe hardly. Thus our numbers are inflated with unbelievers on the roles, and who seeing no reason to continue in our fellowships.
But some are because they have been there a while and have benefits like recognition of who they are, a voice in others affairs, help in times of need and so forth. Not bad things if one was a believer but not the reason to be in worship.
Thats the first gripe.
THis is the second gripe.
Salvation isnt a formula.
You dont do the right things and then expect numbers.
That is a false formula for church growth.
There is no heavenly law that says our faithfulness as a preacher and as a congregation equals church growth.
We should be faithful. We should not expect growth without it. But we shouldn’t expect growth because of it.
Rather our goal should be to be faithful, which includes discipling each other, and then to go out into our worlds and witness the Gospel in word. And to be ready to aid those in need as best we can. Which means to give up the comforts we have in order to give them to others. And then IF GOD gives us growth, great! and if not, Great!
No need to fret over denominational oblivion.
Sadly to say, that will happen. Someday.
But to seek to stem the tide by numbers one through nine above, will only hasten it.
The unfaithful church has its candlestick removed.
One through nine done does make any congregation faithful. Thus one through nine will not stop the denominational slide or stop the SBC FROm becoming like the Episcoplians or whatever.
ITs great that y’all love the SBC. And the SBC Is doing great things for the Lord.
We love our country as well. And the USA DOEs great things for the world.
The Roman Empire built roads.
BUT great things tend to collapse from within, due to sin and unfaithfulness at their core. And it is at our core, the local church, that we will be strong or continue to deterioate.
IN the end, that is the question we need ask ourselves, congregation by congregation: ARE we discipling and witnessing?
Because every good farmer prunes his trees.
Exactly, can you imagine being Jerrmiah and being told that noone would be converted under your ministry?
I wish you could explain that to the seminary in Memphis that I attended back in the late 90s
Say the prayer and guarantee them salvation was yhe formula
If we answer the first 9 with “We’ll do exactly the same thing we’ve always done: put the same batch of famous white guys from the same circle of connections into leadership and let that be ‘who we are as the SBC'”
Then the SBC will continue to decline.
The answer to the decline of the SBC is in the first 9. (Perhaps not a couple of them.)
We idolize men who then fall morally, and then we replace them with people cut from the exact same cloth. We fail to make disciples who focus on Jesus and then we wonder why it is that the same old way of doing thing fails to make disciples, fails to see a world come to Christ.
You’re exactly wrong to suggest that whether or not we continue to put men on pedestals because they come from the “right” culture and the “right” breeding and the “right” school of fame and celebrity is irrelevant to the decline and fall of the Southern Baptist Convention. The more we do the exact same things that led to where we are now, the more we will continue on this path.
And further, do you honestly believe that nothing the SBC does affects how your church, a Southern Baptist-affiliated congregation, is effective in its work? That this past year’s very public issues of sexual abuse/sexual misconduct did not reach the ears of anyone in either your congregation or the folks you’re trying to share the Gospel with? That one more fallen leader (take the Aderholt situation with IMB as an example) wasn’t heard about and didn’t change the reaction you got? Because when he led the news for almost a week in our area, guess what happened? Parents of a half-dozen teenage girls pulled them from our youth group and wouldn’t let them attend.
Because we were Southern Baptists and Southern Baptist youth ministers were preying on teenage girls. Our youth attendance dropped, and it was unchurched teens, because of being Southern Baptist, because of the leadership (or lack thereof) from Southern Baptist entities.
If we continue to replace leaders who cover up sin with more leaders who cover up sin, we will continue to see the SBC decline.
What we do matters, otherwise God would not call us to obedience, repentance, evangelism, growth.
And the “church is dying because there’s no social value in going to church anymore” is interesting in light of the book of Acts, the first three centuries of Christianity, and the growth of the church in persecuted areas of the world. There’s no social value in going to church in China and there has not been for centuries. Doesn’t seem to drop their attendance very much, except when the authorities put them in prison where they can’t get to services….
Well said
Doug,
you said:
“And the “church is dying because there’s no social value in going to church anymore” is interesting in light of the book of Acts, the first three centuries of Christianity, and the growth of the church in persecuted areas of the world. There’s no social value in going to church in China and there has not been for centuries. Doesn’t seem to drop their attendance very much, except when the authorities put them in prison where they can’t get to services…”
Who are you quoting sir?
Not me.
I never said that or implied that.
Second, I never said that we shouldn’t be obedient or that we shouldn’t evangelize or that we shouldn’t repent.
In fact I said that we shouldn’t expect growth without faithfulness.
Maybe you had something in your eye when yu read my words.
.Third, I said nothing about famous white guys. But if the people arent witnessing the Gospel, and they aren’t being discipled, it wont matter how diversified we are in our entity heads. I bet most SBCers dont have the faintest idea which entities are even in the SBC much less the skin color of who is leading them.
So keep focusing on your top-centric solutions for the SBC and then you can wonder next December why the numbers are still declining and scratch your heads at the end of 2019 and make another list.
Good list. I might quibble with a couple.
The initial work of the Greear/ERLC sex abuse group will be a big deal.
There were a couple other questions I wanted to add. But the list got long enough.
I think the disturbing direction of some of the comments of the JMac/anti-social justice group is an interesting thing to watch. There have been some things said that have been scary – comments that would curl my hair if my hair had the possibility of curling.
Where is that going?
Honestly, I hope that Greear’s Abuse group produces GREAT results that are hugely significant.
1- qualified men
2- yes
3- probably/temporarily
4- no
5- yes
6- getting close
7- not looking good
8- here to stay
9- absolutely
10- doubtful
The SBC always has, always will differ amongst itself on secondary issues.
Try not to be so wordy
#3: I wonder if the last political season actually divided us or revealed a division in moral philosophy that has existed all along and was just hidden.
“We failed miserably in 2016 and it was an ugly time.”
I’m reminded of the old joke that ends with “What you mean ‘we,’ Kemosabe?”
I didn’t vote for either one of the major party candidates, but I’ve experienced no harassment from any of my fellow believers. So far as I know, I haven’t done it to anyone else. Sure, that’s anecdotal. Are there data that address this one way or another? I’d sure like to see them.
It seems to me that some microscopic percentage of Southern Baptists has publicly been political jerks. Does that really mean that “we failed miserably”?
Maybe so. I do see this one differently.
Well, you did ask for answers.
Happy new year!
When I say, “We failed…” I am not referring to our votes or the outcome of the election, but our attitudes. The SBC became embroiled in a huge fight because of our attitudes over political things. Essentially, we turned politics into a primary, fundamental doctrinal issue – on both sides.
That, in my book, was a failure.
I am speaking of those who engaged in public, social-media discourse, and I believe the failure was widespread.
I think it may seem like we were divided, and we were, but the divide was decidedly lopsided, with the vast majority of the SBC firmly in the Trump camp. There were a few dissenting voices and we tried to be as loud as we could be, but it is clear to the entire country and the world that Southern Baptists are with Trump.
Here are my thoughts:
1. Who will lead our entities?
Twitter
2. Will the SBC integrate its leadership ranks?
Inasmuch as biblical morality explicitly prohibits a system of both excluding people on the basis of race and selecting leadership on the basis of race, it’s hard to say.
I don’t believe that in 2018 anyone is being excluded from SBC leadership on the basis of race.
I hope that SBC churches continue to grow among different ethnic groups, and that people of various ethnicities are not excluded from any churches. So long as that happens, I believe the SBC will see continuing growth of participation and leadership by people from different ethnic groups.
3. Will the upcoming political season tear us apart?
Depends.
If people in the SBC value loving one another over the urge to be prophetic, we’ll be fine.
As examples:
If the #neverTrumpers, including the ones leading SBC agencies, will (1) refrain from writing for the NYT and WAPO and making other statements in public that state or insinuate it is either immoral or hypocritical for Christians to vote for Donald Trump; and (2) not try to engineer President Trump’s defeat by using the agencies to promote candidates whom they believe to be better moral choices, but who have absolutely no chance of winning because they are not on the ballots in all of the states (e.g. a spoiler – to take away 1 or 2 states), that will be a start.
If the pro-Trump forces will not accuse other Christians of allowing the USA to go down the tubes because they did not vote to reelect President Trump.
4. Regular guy for PC President?
Don’t know. Winning the Presidency of anything is often about name recognition.
5. In the thrall of Mega Metro pastors.
Maybe. The issue these days is not the size of the church. It’s the footprint in the religious culture. With social media and conferences, pastors of smaller churches have influence beyond their own churches. The young Reformed crowd would be much more likely to follow a guy like Piper (who’s church was never that large), to a guy like Jack Graham or Steve Gaines.
6. Will the CR reignite?
No. I actually see the seeds of theological drift that in 20 years may leave the SBC like it was in 1960.
The SBC is theologically the way Southern Seminary was in 1900-1910 after the passing of the founders. Folks that were hired to serve with the likes of A.T. Robertson did not have the same theological commitments, but they appeared to be so close, no one noticed.
7. Complementarianism?
I sense some slippage here, partly because its proponents took it to extremes. I just hope the SBC doesn’t reach out to coronate a couple of women who will be the SBC speakers on gender issues.
8. To be continued…
Louis: Your number 3 sounds like go along to get along.
8. Traditionalism
It’s hard to say. Some of the cultural aspects of what might be called Traditionalism will continue to fade. Hard to know about the theological debate.
9. Dominos to fall?
We will probably continue to see this – as humans are involved.
10. Will the slide end?
Depends.
If the SBC regains an edge in practical, effective out reach to people, without trying to just mimic ministry ideas from 40-50 years ago, the SBC has a great opportunity.
The continued decline of rural America will play a role in this that the denomination cannot control, and that will affect statistics.
And while I have enjoyed much of the theological renewal and the new cultural vibe that the Reformed emphasis has brought to the SBC, I am concerned that we are too inward focused, and not outward focused. We say we are outward focused. We have missions boards etc.
But much of what energizes young people in the SBC is not actual evangelism. It’s about talking about evangelism. It’s having conferences and debates about in depth Christian topics. It’s about social and political issues. It’s about focusing on our own sins too much.
Oh brother Louis. Where to begin in my disagreement. As for women speaking on gender issues, if they do….sit down and listen, you might learn what the Bible actually teaches. We have a lot of knowledge we would love to impart.
Debbie:
Happy New Year.
I don’t at all disagree with women, or anyone, speaking on gender issues, or other issues.
My disagreement is with any effort that might arise to coronate a woman, or a small cadre, who will be presented as the “go to” sources for women’s issues in the SBC, or the face of the SBC.
In other words, I think that your thoughts are as legitimate as any other woman in the SBC.
Are they also as legitimate as any male in the SBC? That would be more the question.
Of course.
A point of argument is only as strong as the logic behind the point.
The gender or ethnicity of the person making the point neither detracts from nor enhances the point.
If you make a good point, it stands on its own. Your gender has nothing to do with it.
In regard to #2: I’ve been one of those “hire the best guy.” However, let me preface this with I believe that it is also the right time for a minority to assume the reigns of one of the big leadership positions. Mine is truly, at heart, the best man for job. I happen to feel the current Executive Director of the MDBC would be a great Executive Committee President. He exemplifies strategic leadership, especially considering what Maryland/Delaware just went through/and in reality is still going through.
I’m of a younger generation that is asking the question why race should be a factor at all. However, I do understand the answer concerning SBC: it has happened yet!
Someone stated #10 was dependent upon #1-9 or something to that effect. I would question that theory for the most part. These are discussions for those of us “in the business” to debate. As has been stated to some degree, our church members ( for the most part) have little or no knowledge or concern with such things and these issues have little or no impact on the ministry and mission effectiveness of our churches.
I would say the one big exception is the direction our seminaries go and the training our seminary graduates and future pastors are receiving.
Who the president of SBC, PC, etc. is will have very little impact on the kingdom unless the SBC were to take a dramatic turn back toward liberalism, or some other extreem stand, which was not among the questions asked.
Another thing to consider is the watering down of the seminary education. Within the past 10 years, the 96 hour MDiv went from residency only to as low as 81 hours fully online. Don’t think for a second that 81 hour students are getting what’s in a 96 hour resident program, but it’s the same degree on a diploma. And the churches won’t know. How will this impact preaching? This isn’t a good educational model, because it short cuts biblical learning and theological mentoring. Guys can even get course credit for going to conferences such as TGC or Togther for the Gospel. Liberty University’s online program has lead the way, and the SBC school have followed. We will see fewer residential faculty and a lesser need for research scholars at the seminaries. The seminaries can say the quantity of students and programs are high, but what about the quality?
Excellent comment and a topic that needs further discussion.
I just graduated with at M.Div that was 33 classes in length from a Southern Baptist Seminary. (I’ll let you guess which one, but it isn’t Southern Seminary). I ended up taking about 50% of my M.Div. online, and about 50% in the classroom format. Online classes are about the same difficulty as regular classroom classes. Online classes are just different animals because you largely are responsible for teaching yourself. An online Systematic Theology class will still have the same 20-page paper as the in-person class does.
My opinion is the M.Div, after completing one and starting on a doctoral program in the spring, is obsolete in a modern environment. I am 28 years old, many people my age do not go for an M.Div. because the length outweighs the benefits. That is why shorter master’s degrees have become more popular for ministers.
I think that would depend on educational and career goals.
I’ve never been convinced that the average SBC pastorate requires an MDiv.
Absolutely agree!