Okay, guys, it’s time for some strategy. I have to admit that this election cycle has confused me more than any before. The American electorate has changed and I just don’t understand it anymore. But there’s a big question that we, the members of the SBC Voices Super PAC (we’ve contributed 0$ to 0 candidates and raised $0 so far) need to discuss. It’s about the upcoming Florida GOP primary. It is one of the first 2 winner-take-all primaries and there are about 100 delegates (perhaps 99?) at stake. The guy with the most votes gets them ALL! If Trump wins, he’s on his way to the nomination. If Rubio can pull out a win in his home state, he’s back in the game, but if he loses he’s pretty much done. Then there is Cruz. He’s been surging and is in second place. He’d pretty much given up on Florida, but now he’s opening offices and trying to make a play.
Here’s the Cruz dilemma:
- If he gains ground it will likely be by pulling support from Rubio, guaranteeing a Trump victory and helping the Donald toward the nomination. He drives Rubio out of the race but makes it less likely that he can win. If Trump wins both Ohio and Florida, you can pretty much start printing the ballots for the fall.
- If he helps Rubio win, it prevents Trump from gaining ground, but it brings Rubio back in as genuine threat and makes the idea of a brokered convention even more likely. It is generally agreed that Cruz will not emerge as the nominee from a brokered convention.
So, it would seem that Cruz has to decide if he can win the nomination outright by driving Rubio from the race. And, if he does that, he’d better succeed because the seeming cooperation between the campaigns would be over. If he throws the long bomb, tries to drive Rubio from the race and make it a two-man race (ignoring Kasich), there is much that can go wrong. Rubio could still win or Trump could win Florida (likely) and if he adds Ohio, then Cruz is finished. He has managed to ruin Rubio AND himself.
Here are the ground rules for our discussion:
1) The SBC Voices Super PAC is committed to that candidate called NeverTrump.
We are not about reviving Rubio’s flagging chances, nor are we about getting Cruz elected.
I know that is hard for some of the more passionate Cruzites, who think he is destined to align the planets, balance the force, and usher in the millennium. But we aren’t trying to figure out how to further Cruz, but about how to stop Trump.
2) Trumpites, sit this one out.
You guys can’t believe anyone doesn’t love Trump. We don’t. We want to stop him. The issue is how to do that. You can feel free to weigh in on the topic, but you can’t ridicule or bluster.
3) Candidate insults are not welcome – stick to the topic.
Don’t bash Cruz or Rubio. We aren’t even going to bash Trump – we assume he needs to be defeated! This is a limited discussion, about promoting a single candidate, NeverTrump.
The issue is simple. How do we advance our candidate “NeverTrump” in the Florida primary?
- The Cruz campaign wants to force Rubio out and make it a one-on-one with Trump, but is this best for our guy, NeverTrump?
- Rubio wants to win and get back in, but is that what is best for NeverTrump?
Here are the current delegate counts, thanks to our campaign’s statistician, “Poor Richard.”
Trump – 384 (31% of what is required for nomination)
Cruz – 300 (24%)
Rubio – 151 (12%)
Kasich – 37 (3%)
All others – 20 (1.6%)
Trump has 384 delegates and the others combined have 508. Obviously, that means that at this point, we are headed to a brokered convention. You have to win 50% of the delegates, plus 1. But if you add the Florida and Ohio delegates to Trump, he’s likely to be on his way, especially if he wins Michigan tomorrow.
Discussion Questions.
1. Is there any realistic hope that Cruz can actually WIN in Florida or Ohio? (I don’t think so)
2. Is it not true that Cruz’ involvement in Florida is almost guaranteeing a Trump victory?
3. If Trump wins Florida (driving Rubio out) is there a path to victory for Cruz in a one-to-one race?
4. Can NeverTrump win if Trump wins Florida?
5. Is a brokered convention that bad of an option?
This discussion is obviously going to be about more than Florida, so you are going to need to address one way that NeverTrump could win that you (and I) would not like . . . . which would be Trump’s defeat in the general election.
I did not say what I meant, above. Could have said it better. What I meant was, should we add a #6 point to discuss what to do if the circumstances carry us to a point that forces a choice between NeverTrump (Clinton) and NeverClinton (Trump)? If we “pledge” (mentally) to support and vote for NeverTrump, would that mean we should vote for Clinton in a general eletion where he is the only other viable choice? How should one measure their, or their party’s, relative detestability? Isn’t that what we are talking about? An election where many vote for who… Read more »
When I wrote this, it was with the assumption that the strategy was to beat Trump BEFORE the nomination.
I will not vote for Trump even in the general, but I’m just as NeverClinton as I am NeverTrump.
I’m embroiled in this controversy having just blogged about Trump’s incompetency to lead this country as its President last week. There is a practical and theological dimension to this initiative and campaign: Practical: I do believe Cruz can give Trump a run for his money in and out of Florida (of where I pastor) due to recent momentum trends, particularly were he to receive truly conservative and evangelically based endorsements. Rubio and Carson jumping on the Cruz train would help immensely. Problem is Rubio and the timing of his departure from the race. I agree that his only shot at… Read more »
“It should be unconscionable for a born-again disciple of Christ to even consider voting for Trump in the GOP primaries.”
Thankfully you won’t be Judging the Living and Dead!
It should be unconscionable that Conservatives would continue to led by the nose by the GOP Establishment and believe the lies they tell about what they will do if elected. #NeverGOPEstablishment
More info from HotAir. ”
PPP Ohio: Trump 38, Kasich 35, Cruz 15, Rubio 5
Kasich better win that.
The goid news there is that polls seem to have consistently overstated Trump’s numbers.
More polling FYI:
Monmouth poll of Florida: Trump leads Rubio by eight — but Rubio leads Trump in early vote by 25
That is much better than the “Trump by 20” polls I was seeing. I don’t know why the polls are so bad, but in general the polls show much greater support for Trump than actually exists
I’ve wondered if people just say they’re voting for trump in some big conspiracy to pump him in polls. Gotta go make my tinfoil hat now…
The polls are bad because there is no scientific sampling process in place to gauge the voting tendencies of people who previously were non-voters, but are now all in on Trump. http://articles.latimes.com/1998/nov/01/news/mn-38174 or Google ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ Disaster Haunts Pollsters
A lot of it is the “likely voter” problem. A lot more people say they’re going to vote than actually do, and you can imagine why Trump might get a higher percentage of those votes. Especially in closed primary states like Florida.
Right now the best hope for NeverTrump is a brokered convention. For that you need Marco and Kasich to stay in as long as possible.
And for Marco to win Fla and Kasich to win Ohio.
It’s amazing so many are so blind to the GOP Establishment and their impotence, their coddling of Obama and their refusal to do what the People gave them their seats to do. And now, they don’t care at all about Cruz, they would rather have Rubio and Kasich stay in the race, get a brokered convention and then run Romney, Ryan, or Bloomberg.
Wake up. The GOP Establishment is playing many for fools! You should be #NeverGOPEstablishment They need to go the way of the Whigs.
This has to be the most ironic comment I have ever seen. I can agree with you half way on your premise; someone is definitely being played for a fool.
Mike, so you think the GOP Establishment wants Cruz to be the nominee? Or you don’t think they want a brokered Convention? Or you can’t believe they would prop up someone besides Rubio or Kasich?
Rubio can’t win but, he’s drawing enough support away from Cruz that Trump will likely win the nomination. In fact I doubt Rubio will be able to win his home state because he went back on his promise to the voters that got him elected and he co-sponsored amnesty legislation. If he would bow out now his supporters would get behind Cruz and Trump would be history. I hate the thought of a brokered convention. I would rather have the people decide.
Brokered conviction is absolutely the worst case scenario. If Donald Trump wins the nomination out right a lot of people will vote for him in the general election – including Democrats – and he possibly – maybe – could pull it out. A broker convention about which he gets the nomination – would so cause of revolt within the principled conservative wing of the party that he would lose very very very badly. If the nomination is wrestled away from trump – with him having the most delegates – he will certainly run third-party – and causecomplete havoc. Truly the… Read more »
Let me remind you that the point of this is NOT “how we can get Cruz elected” but how we can stop Trump.
They’re one in the same – 😉
Look, I’m not a Cruz guy. His “deport them all” immigration policy and “make the sand glow” foreign policy make him a way less than ideal candidate to me. BUT, he is clearly the best hope for the GOP to stop Trump if that is truly the goal. The problem is that the GOP establishment doesn’t want to stop only Trump. They want to stop Cruz too. He doesn’t play by their rules. I think many of the establishment guys would rather have Trump than Cruz. Rubio and Kasich are selfishly choosing the hail mary pass of a contested convention… Read more »
I saw an interesting thing after Saturday’s primaries. It came from a Democratic operative, so I’m not sure precisely how accurate it was. He was pro-Trump, but I think part of that was because he thought Hillary would soundly pound Trump. Anyway, his theory was that Cruz had almost no shot at the nomination. Even though he is the leading “anti-Trump” right now, he says the math is bad for Cruz. Here’s his thinking, as I remember it. 1. Cruz has pretty much ONLY appealed to strongly evangelical populations. 2. The upcoming states skew away from strongly conservative and evangelical… Read more »
“1. Cruz has pretty much ONLY appealed to strongly evangelical populations.”
Yeah, like Maine! (Unless “ONLY” means something different than I think it does.)
Similar arguments like you just said could be said against Rubio – with all of his Electoral losses and primaries for which he didn’t even meet the threshold to get any delegates whatsoever to boot the case for Marcos departure.
Its mind-boggling to me that any reasonable person can look at the real numbers and actual elections and say the cruz should be the one that gets out – it’s absolutely mind-boggling.
No one said anything about Cruz getting out. But I do remind you that this is not about your love for Cruz or your hatred for Rubio. It’s about defeating Trump. Let’s try to keep focused on that. The question is whether there is a legitimate chance for Cruz to win outright and I’m not sure there is. I serious doubt that Rubio can either. Try to avoid making this a Cruz vs. Rubio thing. I know it’s hard, but I’m trying to keep the discussion focused on “how can NeverTrump win” not how can Tarheel see that Rubio is… Read more »
Dave, the problem with your “unbiased” analysis is the fact that you have been a Rubio supporter ever since you chose a candidate. Your dislike for Cruz is equally damaging to your ability to be unbiased. Of course Tarheel struggles to be unbiased as well, because he has been a Cruz supporter ever since Scott Walker dropped out. I reluctantly chose Cruz in the Virginia primary. I have a hard time getting excited about him. But I thought he was toast when he announced his candidacy at LU. Even until very recently I saw no possible way for him to… Read more »
Primaries are extremely difficult to predict even in predictable years. Delegate allocations can be convoluted and the ebb and flow of campaigns winning and losing influence later votes. I looked at the primaries going forward and tried to look at some scenarios of delegate allocations (do not ask what I did, I essentially guessed while sticking with the winner-take-all receiving everything in those primaries and assuming no one breaks the threshold for trigger winner take all). What I think I see: 1) There is a very slim chance for Cruz to win the nomination outright. Everything must line up, and… Read more »
Should say, “(even if Kasich and Rubio drop out, I don’t think all their supporters will go to Cruz.)” I think a lot of people would be surprised how many would default to the leading candidate and how many don’t like Cruz either, thus staying home or voting Trump.
I doubt it. I think most of the people are looking for an evangelical (or at least a solid conservative) alternative to Trump and they can’t decide between Rubio or Cruz so they are both getting the votes. If Rubio drops out, the vast majority of his supporters would jump on the Cruz bandwagon and Trump would be toast. It would fulfill the No-Trump objective in a decidedly patriotic American fashion; much more so than a brokered convention.
I have serious doubts about Cruz’ ability to appeal beyond tea party and evangelicals he’s appealed to so far. Can he win beyond that?
You know how us left winger/liberals think, Bill.
I do know how you left winger/liberals think. However, I have heard from a few secular conservatives that have indicated that they would vote for either Trump or Cruz. They refuse to vote for Rubio because of the amnesty thing. I think that will dog him for the remainder of his political career.
At first I thought “super” was “supper”… Now I’m hungry. :-\
Nice.
NeverTrump is not on any states ballot. This strategic premise discussion is self defeating, and only advances what you are most against. In a republic electoral election you have to stand for someone and that persons expressed principles.
“The Nation, which indulges towards another an habitual hatred, or an habitual fondness, is in some degree a slave. It is a slave to its animosity or to its affection, either of which is sufficient to lead it astray from its duty and its interest. … ”
— George Washington
So then, you will not feel that defeating Hillary Clinton is important? Is that hate?
Seeing someone as an enemy of democracy (clearly, Trump is) and of decency (no doubt Trump is) and of what is good in America (he is everything that is wrong) and opposing him – is that hatred?
Then I assume you will NEVER speak a negative word about Obama, about Hillary, or about anyone else? Or is it only a candidate you support that we cannot speak against?
I have no issue with someone speaking against a candidate I support. I actually welcome the civil discourse our founding father gave us the rights to have. NeverTrump is a ghost not a candidate. NeverTrump is not on any ballot. NeverTrump is a #hastag. I went to a Ford dealership they told me never to buy a Toyota and gave me many reasons. Never told me why I should buy a Ford. I went to the Toyota dealership they said Ford makes good cars and showed me what they considered advantages of their cars. Politics is like Consumerism. Sell a… Read more »
1. Rubio needs to get out now for the good of the party and for his own political future.
2. John Kasich would undoubtedly make the best president of any of the candidates…too bad the election is not about who would make a good president.
3. Trump should, if he really cares about America, on April 1st, drop out of the race and let us all know that it was just a big joke, to proove he could do it.
Somehow, this plays more like a stump speech than actual analysis or discussion.
Analysis on #1: Rubio is sliding down, and is in danger of losing florida, which would be an embarrasment for him, and would also all but guarantee trump wins Florida. If Rubio drops out before florida, Cruz can win florida. Analysis on #2: Kasich seems to be the only one not acting and speaking like a middle schooler. However, related to #1, If he want’s to block trump, he should also drop out before Florida. Even winning Ohio will not get him the nomination. However, a Cruz/Kasich ticket would be a strong opposition to Trump. Analysis on #3: You heard… Read more »
Do you honestly believe Cruz can win Fla? I’ve not really seen anyone making that prediction. I’m not a big fan of Cruz, but if I thot he was “the one” I’d go for it. I’m afraid the math her is against him. If he takes down Rubio, he may take himself down in the process. He gas to do it, though, since a brokered convention is not going to be a winner for him. The candidates are about winning, not about beating Trump. That, to me, is unfortunate. Had Rubio and Cruz made an alliance earlier they might have… Read more »
I believe if trump and cruz were the only one’s left, cruz would win florida.
If Rubio & Trump were alone, Rubio MIGHT win florida.
I predict trump will win florida if all stays as it is now.
You are right that Rubio & Cruz both going for the win will result in Trump winning.
Kasich gets to sound like the “adult” up there because the other 3 know that he is irrelevant to the race at this point. He gets no tough questions* from the moderators and receives no attacks or pushback from the other candidates because they know that he is the O’Malley of the GOP race. *I should note that Kasich did receive one tough question the other night regarding his comments on religious liberty. He totally botched it. He said the exact opposite of what he had said in the previous debate and attempted to play it off as no big… Read more »
“He said the exact opposite of what he had said in the previous debate and attempted to play it off as no big deal.”
Isn’t this what qualifies one to be president? 🙂
You guys are so far off base on this. We don’t have to stop Mr. Trump, President Obama will. He has no intention of leaving office. He’s already said he’s staying in D.C. – just for the kids. Yeah, right! Look for the demons of hell to be unleashed in the next ten months.
I hope you are joking.
Yes, Dave, I hope so too, however, I have always been uneasy about Obama’s real intentions. Rubio is correct when he says Obama knows exactly what he’s doing. When we consider all that Obama has done to weaken this country, the picture is scary. I fear the worst is yet to come. (Sorry for the gloom and doom.)
Below are what I see as the most likely scenarios in this election. These are not listed in order of what I want to happen. I hope I’m wrong. Again, all of these assume that Hillary will in fact be the nominee, and she will be unless something truly dramastic happens. And no, dramastic is not in the dictionary but I like it and no matter what he may claim, Trump does not “have the best words” because he doesn’t have that one. 1) Trump wins the nomination, most Republicans decide to play nice and try to support him, but… Read more »
Except you don’t factor into #5 the same vitriol of those for Trump or Cruz (should he get bush-wacked) that the #NeverTrump crowd shows. For if we of the #NeverGOPEstablishment crowd show the same vitriol against you that you show for us, then your #5 blows up in your face.
Because Rubio, Kasich, or any other GOP Establishment candidate yet to be named has no chance of winning. See history for the examples: Dole, McCain, and Romney
Nate, scenario 5 specifically assumes that the Trump and #NeverGOPEstablishment crowd does in fact fully support the #NeverTrump nominee. It’s one of the less likely scenarios, which is why it’s so far down the list. Kasich might be closest to Dole, McCain, and Romney, but I don’t think Rubio really fits that mold. The thing about Kasich is that he probably would govern as a level-headed conservative regarding most fiscal and foreign policy issues. I think he’s a competent executive. He just comes across as too squishy on social issues such as religious liberty. He did a better job on… Read more »
Umm, so essentially Jeff doesn’t factor into #5 that #4 might happen?
Now, to specifically answer Dave’s discussion questions: 1) No, I think it’s quite unlikely that Cruz wins in OH or FL. 2) No, I wouldn’t say Cruz’s involvement in OH and FL “guarantees” a Trump victory in those states, though it makes it more likely. 3-4) Yes, Cruz has a path to victory. Even if he doesn’t secure an outright win in the primary season, he may get enough delegates on his own to force a contested convention anyway, and he may have a better shot of winning a contested convention if he finishes a close second to Trump and… Read more »
“I hope the Trump supporters get behind the nominee if there is a contested convention.”
So, you think Trump or Cruz supporters should get behind the GOP Establishment hand-picking a candidate at a brokered convention when the #NeverTrump crowd is adamant about refusing to vote for him should he win the nomination out-right? The #NeverTrump crowd would rather see Hillary elected just to prove their point, but they want Trump supporters be “good soldiers” of the Establishment. Give me a break!
“The #NeverTrump crowd would rather see Hillary elected just to prove their point”
I didn’t vote for Mitt Romney. I refused to do so because I wanted to make a point. My refusal to vote for Trump has nothing to do with proving a point. It is about principle.
Adam, of course it’s your principle. Everyone’s vote (or non-vote) is their principled choice. But make no mistake, a non-vote carries just as much weight in States that could go either way. While a non-vote in Texas probably doesn’t matter as much, one in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, and a few other states matter a great deal.
When a “conservative” chooses not to vote in a State that is “Up-for-grabs” they are still voting. So if you “principles” allow for the other party’s candidate to win because of your non-vote, fair enough. Principles matter, but they still have repercussions.
I believe that Donald Trump is just as much of a disaster for this country as Hillary Clinton, just in a different way. I will never understand why I should feel obligated to vote for one of those two candidates when I feel that way. Btw, I did vote in 2012. There were quite a few candidates on the ballot.
Nate: They do see how many people vote. Not voting does get noticed.
Not that it matters what non-voting does….I will follow my convictions which is if there is a Trump vs. Hilary vote I will not vote at all.
I don’t agree that the NeverTrump crowd “would rather see Hillary elected just to prove their point.” Most NeverTrump folks that I know have genuine convictions of conscience that prevent them from supporting either Trump or Hillary.
That’s a completely fictional statement Jeff. See my response to Adam directly above your post.
What did I say that is “completely fictional”?
Make no mistake, a non-vote carries just as much weight in States that could go either way. While a non-vote in Texas probably doesn’t matter as much, one in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, and a few other states matter a great deal. When a “conservative” chooses not to vote in a State that is “Up-for-grabs” they are still voting. So if you “principles” allow for the other party’s candidate to win because of your non-vote, fair enough. Principles matter, but they still have repercussions. So you can’t stay home (or vote for a 3rd party who has no chance)… Read more »
Let’s say you are a first-century Jew. It’s Passover, and Pilate offers to set free either a popular convicted murderer or a less-popular convicted rapist. There is a minority group of citizens who are petitioning Pilate to set free an innocent rabbi who was arrested for political reasons. (For theological simplicity, let’s assume it’s not Jesus this year.) This group refuses to vote for either criminal, their petition is unsuccessful, the murderer wins the vote, and he goes on to murder other people. The Jews who voted for the rapist blame the murder of these people on the petitioners who… Read more »
You seem to imply that by not voting nobody will be set free. Someone will win the election, your vote or non-vote in a state that is “up-for-grabs” will have an impact. Period!
“So you can’t stay home (or vote for a 3rd party who has no chance) and say you aren’t voting against Trump should he be nominated.”
Who said they wouldn’t be voting against Trump by voting for a 3rd party? If the Democrat choice is Hillary and the Republican choice is Trump, I will vote against both by voting 3rd party. And I will do so based on principle, and with a clear conscience.
Ok, let me add to the hypothetical just to make it clearer. Someone will be set free. And let’s say that if a majority of Jews could be persuaded to join the petition, Pilate would actually release the innocent rabbi. However, the rabbi is even less popular than either the rapist or murderer. There is precious little chance that the petition will succeed. If these petitioners were to cast their votes for the rapist, however, they would tip the balance in his favor. Are the petitioners at fault for maintaining their principled stand?
I believe that a Hillary Clinton presidency would be horrific so as to outstrip the phantasms of our most troubling nightmares. She would set back the pro-life cause terribly. She would set back the cause of religious liberty terribly. She would advance socialism. We have every reason to believe that her foreign policy would be as disastrous as President Obama’s, since she was his Secretary of State and developed much of his foreign policy. Every bad thing you imagine that she would do, she would do. Now, Nate, having said all of that, and believing every word of it, I… Read more »
You should consider becoming a blogger, Bart.
I did not vote for Trump in the primary, but I can see some differences between him and Mrs. Clinton that would cause me to vote for Trump. 1. The President, as head of the executive branch, has great power over executive agencies. That is where most “law” is made now. I believe Trump is likely to pull back on job-killing actions of the EPA, the education grab by the Education Department, be less likely to promote Department of Labor regulations that have the effect of stifling religious expression in the workplace. I have only touched on a couple of… Read more »
Good stuff, Bart.
Louis, “I did not vote for Trump in the primary, but I can see some differences between him and Mrs. Clinton that would cause me to vote for Trump.” My primary is next week, so I haven’t voted yet. Most likely Cruz. The rest of what you wrote here makes good sense. If Trump is the eventual nominee, I plan to vote for him. I cannot see how he could be worse than what we’ve endured for 7 plus years nor what we would get from Hillary. She is a very known quantity on any and every issue. Trump not… Read more »
There are plausible if not compelling arguments to be made on both sides of the Hillary vs Donald general election choice- a truly horrible prospect.
This is why thinking Christians who happen to be registered Republicans voting in primaries, must say “Never Trump” with their votes and pray much for Gods mercy on this nation.
1. Yes, Trump would be likely to use executive overreach to reward business rather than penalize it. I think that’s a good thing. 2. Putin: Trump said that Obama’s foreign policy was TOO TOUGH on Putin, and that we should be more accommodating of Putin. “What do we need trouble for?” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjo4u88no7U 3. Executive Orders: I do not believe that Trump, accustomed to executive government by fiat in his corporate endeavors, will suddenly abandon executive government by fiat upon entering elective office. What did he say about military officers who would refuse to carry out his immoral and illegal orders… Read more »
Very good Bart.
Forrest and I have one thing in common, we are not smart men, well two, we like chocolate, but I fail to see how if Cruz helps Rubio in Florida and Rubio can win that the reciprocal would not be true. CBS has the polls at 38% Trump, 30% Rubio and 17% Cruz. I have read millions of times, it seems, that none of the support of Cruz, Rubio, Kasich would go to Trump if one of these guys dropped out. If 30 + 17 is more than 38 then 17 + 30 is more than 38. The best strategy… Read more »
Bingo.
Are you bingoing I am not a smart man?
I agree with everything you said. 🙂
Exactly! Dean.
Sorry, guys, if my word isn’t good enough, it isn’t good enough, but the fact that I supported Rubio isn’t the issue now. This is not about finding a path for Rubio to the nomination. I’ve pretty much abandoned hope of a Rubio win. I don’t think either Cruz or Rubio are going to head the ticket this time. If Rubio won Florida and there was some sort of amazing bounce from that, but I don’t see it happening. I don’t like Cruz much, but I was ready to hold my nose and put a sign in my yard until… Read more »
And I certainly agree that Dean isn’t that smart.
Dave, somewhere in this menagerie of blogs is one where you said the loser of Rubio/Cruz on Super Tuedsay should withdraw, unite with the winner and defeat Trump.
Your powers of influence convinced me you were correct; Rubio should withdraw and call on his support to vote for Cruz. Your insight is brilliant.
No, you are right. I put that up as a post.
It didn’t happen.
I also read/listened to some OP that said that was a horrible idea. They convinced me that the best anti-Trump strategy is to keep all the guys in the race, at least until after March 15. If Cruz does well today, then Kasich and Rubio win next Tuesday, the Trump nightmare may be over, then those guys can slug it out.
Can you believe that presidential candidates didn’t follow my advice?
Dave, I am missing something. You agree that if Rubio and Cruz had combined forces a couple of weeks ago, it would have had a chance of stopping Trump. (btw – I believe I advocated a couple of weeks ago that Rubio should get out and support Cruz, but I did not see any takers) But now you don’t believe that Rubio and Cruz should combine forces because it won’t work now. What has happened to change the calculation in the last 2 weeks? If it would have been a good idea 2 weeks ago, why did you and others… Read more »
Timing is everything. Too many delegates have gone out now. Plus, I think it’s too late for Cruz to get it together and win Florida. Florida really seems key to me. 100 delegates (or 99 – I’ve seen both #) winner-take-all. If NeverTrump is going to win, Florida needs to be a firewall. Had they joined forces 2 weeks ago, it might have been possible. Now, it’s likely too late. All of this is conjecture, feeling. I did a pretty good job of calling and predicting the IOWA thing. I know Iowa pretty well. But the rest of this has… Read more »
What happened is Super Tuesday happened, followed by the primaries on Saturday. Although Cruz did well in the primaries to show that he is the definitive second place candidate, he did not win enough delegates to put him on a recognizable path to winning the nomination outright. Also he and Rubio did not do well enough to blunt Trump’s momentum such that at this juncture there is indication of him winning enough primaries to get the nomination (this is more Rubio’s failure as he needed to win a couple of primaries and steal away more delegates). After today’s primary results… Read more »
Dave, I don’t think anyone is questioning your integrity (at least I’m not), but the nature of having a bias is that it is often not as evident to the one with the bias as those around them. The same can be said about Tarheel. He is biased toward Cruz. You have accurately pointed that out. He’s not much willing to acknowledge the bias. But your bias toward Rubio and against Cruz is equally clear. You keep saying that no one is talking about Cruz being able to win Florida. That is because we have a 4 man race and… Read more »
Let’s all admit we cannot predict the future. We can, however “predict the past”. Surprise happens. Consider this about Rubio. Just one week ago EVERYONE was saying he could not win Florida because he was 20 points behind Trump. Now he is 8 points behind . . . in the polls, and the polls have been way off. Also, I notice that Cruz is now adjusting his schedule to include Florida events. Cruz is shrewd. He would not waste his time. If he was certain Rubio was going to lose Florida, he would not be going to Florida. Also, we… Read more »
Of course Puerto Rico went for Rubio.
That’s Rubio’s problem!!!
He is seen as wanting the entire Southern Hemisphere to move to the U.S.
His Gang of 8 bill is what killed him.
Puerto Rico only proves they liked the Gang of 8 bill. That will actually hurt him in other states, I believe.
Tarheel and others are right. Rubio is the one who should get out. His performance is not improving, but getting worse. Cruz is a flawed nominee for a Nevertrump perspective because his appeal is limited. But with Rubio out, the Nevertrump people will have to vote for Cruz. So as unpopular as Cruz is with the establishment and the Nevertrumps, if Nevertrump is the real goal, that is easily achievable with Rubio out. The anti trump forces would coalesce, vote for Cruz and beat Trump. But that is not acceptable to many anti trump people. That is because as much… Read more »
Yep.
I don’t know. I’ve come to believe the best hope for NeverTrump is a brokered convention.
I see here again statements to the effect of real (or good) Christians cannot vote for Trump. That is so contrary to the teaching of the Gospel it is hard to believe that people say such things. Any church that would permit its pastor or other teachers to say such things in church during the time for the preaching and teaching of God’s word is missing the boat. My pastor has a higher calling than that and would not take the time to do something like that. It’s fine and right for the church to speak about principles and truth… Read more »
Saying, “I will not vote for candidate ‘A’ because of my Christian faith,” is not the same as saying, “You cannot be a Christian if you vote for candidate ‘A’.” I have not seen where anyone here said the latter.
I am sorry to jump in at this point. I do not intend to be argumentative; it’s simply that the logic didn’t follow. It is like saying all squares are rectangles therefore all rectangles are squares. I offer this as a comparison: I am a Christian. I cannot eat pork or shellfish as a matter of conscience. In no way does it follow that all Christians must abstain or they are not Christians (that would wipe out almost the entire population of believing Americans. Lol!). My conscience dictates what I can do *in faith*. For me, it would be sin;… Read more »
I have to admit, Louis, that I wonder about the spiritual judgment and discernment of someone who supports Trump. That may be wrong, but when a candidate is a vile as he is, as anti-Christian in just about every way, I shake my head and wonder how any Christian person could even consider supporting him. So, while I agree in theory that we shouldn’t consign people to hell or question their salvation for how they vote, I have to admit that I question the discernment and biblical wisdom of people who look at this man and think, “He should lead… Read more »
Dave, you wouldn’t be human if you did not think that way.
We all make judgments about things we think are good and things we think are bad.
In politics, these judgments are all weighed against other candidates and other interests.
I really can’t say it any better than Jonathan Leeman said it. I know I have linked to this before, but with your permission, I will do so again.
http://9marks.org/mailbag/32/
This really is worth a read.
Louis: To my knowledge we have never had anyone so vile as Donald Trump run for office except David Duke who was quickly dismissed, so not even a consideration. I too have a huge problem with those who want to vote Trump in office. I question who they really are inside.
And I don’t apologize for speaking out and am glad some in the church leadership are speaking out. I think it is honoring to Christ to do so. We are to stand against such things.
Hillary is every bit as evil as Trump and you don’t seem to feel led to say anything about her.
Debbie,
You’ve never seen a POLITICIAN as vile and wicked as Trump? Really? Have you checked out the Clinton’s past? I’ve known of many Politicians, who were living wicked, vile lives, and who believed wicked and vile things. You must live a very sheltered life, or else you’re exaggerating.
BTW, I did NOT vote for Trump. I am not a fan of Trump.
David
I should clarify since of course Dems are being put in my statement. In the Republican party.
We all have a tendency to exaggerate, to see the now as “the best ever” or “the worst ever.” When you see people talking about today’s negative campaigning as if it is the worst ever, that’s just ignorant of history. The stuff today is lightweight compared to what went on in campaigns in the past. And Trump as the “most vile ever.” Well, I’m no Trump fan (I think I’ve proven that) and I will never vote for him for anything. But he’s probably not the worst ever. There’ve been a few stinkers in the USA family tree. Trump is… Read more »
And you and others do have a point Dave. I know I know, but it’s true.
George Wallace ran for President, and before Civil and women’s rights movement, Presidents that were pro-KKK etc. so yes, even in my lifetime there were some pretty bad people who went pretty far in the polls and were almost on the ballot.
I should be in bed. I am not feeling well tonight, just woke up and did make that comment without remembering.
I’m sorry to hear that you aren’t feeling well. I know that we have had our differences, but I sincerely pray that you will feel better soon.
Adam:
I agree, as you have stated it.
But what is being stated is directed toward the sincerity and maturity of the faith of others.
Here is a comment from this very blog post:
“It should be unconscionable for a born-again disciple of Christ to even consider voting for Trump in the GOP primaries.”
Tell me what you think of that.
This is just today. All you have to do is peruse the internet for 5 minutes or check your own FB page and you will see this replicated many times over.
Let me clarify the post and comments I stand by in declaring support or a vote for Trump in the GOP primaries as unconscionable. Though unconscionable may be a strong word, let me ask; can a Christian sin by being consciously unwise or undiscerning (Pro. 1)? if so, then how do we explain a biblically-based Christian voting for Trump, considering Trump’s history as prologue to his present? Has Trump (as recent a convert to “conservatism” as has ever existed) demonstrated any sort of track record as to espousing policies that jive at all with scriptural principles? Have his recorded beliefs… Read more »
I am not a trump supporter, but I can imagine someone who truly believes another abortion-supporting Clinton in the white house would be terrible, and who also believes trump has the best shot of beating her. As such, that person may decide to vote for Trump in the primary. Many more would vote for trump in the general election for the same reason.
I see no reason to question the devotion to Christ of a Christian who makes either of those determinations.
Okay, honesty here.
I will never vote for Trump. EVER. For anything.
But if someone decides to vote for Trump against Hillary, I can at least process that. Fine. It’s a choice.
What I do not understand is people who look at the field of candidates we had in the GOP and say, “This degenerate is the best we’ve got.” I just don’t get that.
That’s what I’m getting at…
I don’t either at this point Andy in terms of a general election. That is a whole other controversy and issue.
My comment and contention is with
conscious Christians voting in the GOP primary for Trump over the more biblically based candidates. I have blogged on this more extensively on my blog, Deadpool for Presidesent at my captivethought.word press.com
My own Facebook page? I’m not sure what you are referring to.
Not you, Adam.
Another commenter posted what I wrote.
Okay, here’s the Millereality: 1. There is a minority of Trumpites – passionate and unwilling to consider anyone but Trump. They are absolutist in their support of him. He wasn’t kidding when he said he could shoot someone on 7th Avenue and they’d still support him – see Steve’s comments here. This number hasn’t changed too much since about September. It’s dipped from time to time (giving this old codger hope) and swelled (sending fear surging through me) but seems to correct to the norm – somewhere in the 35% range. 2. The NON-Trump vote has coalesced around 3 guys… Read more »
NeverClinton. NeverSanders. NeverStayHome. NeverWriteIn.
I just wanted to see if that was any fun to type. Turns out, it is!
How about NoTrump? Of course, some of the crusty characters supporting Donald would read that as Not Rump and wonder what that meant. My favorite bumper sticker from the last election was NOBAMA, but hundreds of those on cars and signs in my area didn’t seem to have any effect on election day. I may write in my wife’s name this go around – she’s got more sense than any of those running … plus, I tell her all the time that she in one of the most godly men I know and ought to run for something!
What we are likely facing, if current trends hold and I hope they don’t, is a general election choice between wicked queen Jezebel on the one hand and crazy King Nebuchadnezzar on the other. Some choice. There doesn’t seem to me to be any realistic way to avoid this unless there are providential circumstances that intervene. But perhaps God will somehow give us the president we need rather than the one we deserve.
Nebuchadnezzar was restored to his kingdom fully sane and repentant. Even before his great sin (in which his insanity was a consequence) he was much beloved by Daniel, “may this happen to your enemies rather than you!” Jezebel was out thrown head first from a balcony and killed; her blood was licked up by dogs – she was beloved by no one.
If you go by your analogy then, there is hope for Nebuchadnezzar.
Rob
“Rubio, though trailing badly in polls, is actually leading by a huge margin in early voting in Florida…”
I’m curious, have they actually counted the early votes in Florida, or are you talking about data based on exit polls?
Thanks.
This is where the “early voting going to Rubio” statements come from:
http://www.redstate.com/jaycaruso/2016/03/07/rubio-leads-trump-big-in-early-florida-voting/
So, as I understand that: The polls say: 1. the 20% of voters who have ALREADY voted say they voted Rubio by a 48 to 23 margin. 2. The others claim to favor Trump by a 42 to 26 margin. And, the factor in that is that Trump’s polling has been consistently OVER-reported in almost every state. He regularly finishes under what his polls say he is going to get. Polls had him up by 20 points or so in all the states Saturday and he won two of them narrowly and lost to Cruz by wide margins in the… Read more »
If the early voting went the other way, I’m guessing the talk about Rubio getting out might have grown wings,.
Thanks. My question was a curiosity about how Florida counts early votes. Here in Texas, early votes are not counted until election day, and I assumed that would be true of most states. It’s not odd that folks like us might speak in these terms, but it does seem that journalists reporting on the election would be more clear that they are talking about polling data, rather than headlining in a way that implies early votes have already been counted. Then again, maybe I’m a lot too literal in my reading.
I was confused too.
I don’t’ think it is the COUNTING of early votes, but a poll.
In the poll, those who said they’d actually voted – 20% – said they’d gone for Rubio by 25% majority. The rest said they preferred Trump 42-26. I’m guessing Cruz was still down around 10 or 12%?
It is also significant that Florida is a closed primary. That tends to work in the favor of the non-Trump candidate (Cruz in some states, Rubio here).
On the other hand, in Iowa, people could register at the polls. Many did. There were a lot of Trump supporters who were signing up at the polls.
I will add that Trump seems to be losing some steam. I am not sure why that is. I suspect it may be because he has backed off some of his earlier statements.
We’ll see.
Maybe it’s because of the righteous opposition to him?
Bart: Some good responses. I am on my phone so it’s hard to go back point by point. What i was comparing is not Trump to other Republicans but to Clinton. You have pointed to Trump’s weaknesses and inconsistencies in a valid way, but on a continuum, it’s hard to argue that Hillary would be more mild on any of these points. For me, on the socialism point alone, economic freedom, that a Trump Presidency would be superior to Mrs. Clinton. I think that Ben Carson made a good point at NRB last week. He said that he would support… Read more »
I’m not sure Trump’s near-fascism is any better than Clinton’s socialism.
Well, I guess there’s a whole lot of sinning going on in Mississippi. Trump is apparently routing on the evangelical vote.
They’re projecting Trump to win Michigan, as well.
Also, it looks like Rubio is coming in dead last
Yep, he won it. Now he is piece by piece refuting, very calmly BTW, Michigan’s own Romney. Trump water, steaks, magazine.
Talk about backfiring on the establishment.
And Rubio is done. Stick a fork in him.
Hold on a minute boys, Rubio is putting the wood to Dr Carson in MS by a 2 to 1 margin.
Wide is the road that leads to destruction.
Trump’s popularity is not proof of his righteousness.
It us amazing that Christians would imply that argument.
Dave,
“Trump’s popularity is not proof of his righteousness.
It us amazing that Christians would imply that argument.”
If you are referring to my comment, please know that that was not my intent or implication. My point is really that no matter what, evangelicals are supporting him in some significant numbers…and noting the sometimes inferences or outright statements questioning the Christian walk of Trump voters. I am not one who is supporting Trump, I repeat.
It looks like Rubio is in single digits in Michigan and Mississippi dropping support greatly from polls taken just a week ago. If he can’t win his home state then he will just be another ego driven politician you never hear from again. Sad, Rubio has many good qualities that could have benefited our country.
Then Trump comes on the TV and lets us know how great he is. I don’t think there is a word yet that describes the level of Trumps EGO.
After careful consideration, I’ve officially decided to vote for whichever candidate cares more about stopping ISIS than Hobby Lobby.
-Not Kenny Rogers
Hey, NeverTrump won Michigan!
From what I see, NeverTrump picked up 27 delegates to 21 for Der Trumper.
And not to be outdone in the polemics category, and just in time to convince Christians, comes this post.
http://blogs.thegospelcoalition.org/trevinwax/2009/10/29/understanding-the-german-mindset-during-world-war-ii-2/
Just another ineffective piece that persuades no one.
If Trump goes on to win, I wonder what lessons people will learn when it comes to persuasion.
Truth is not judged by how many it persuades but by how faithful it is.
Bonhoeffer died opposing Hitler, but that didn’t make his opposition ineffective.
I don’t like Trump either. But the continual (if not outright) sly innuendos to the Nazis, Hitler and the Third Reich is unbecoming. Nazis killed their adversaries dead (“The Night of the Long Knives” – “The Night of Broken Crystal”, concentration camps, “The Peoples Court”, “White Rose”, etc., etc, ad nauseum). Nazis killed those they considered “sub-species” such as Jews, Gypsies and Slavs. Nazis eliminated those who stood up against the party politic in non-violent and violent ways (Bonhoeffer, July 20th “Valkyrie”). Hitler said what he would do in his autobiography and he went about doing it. Call Trump bombastic,… Read more »
Exactly Dave.
Correct. Truth is not judged that way.
But leadership is.
And not to be outdone in the polemics category, and just in time to convince Christians, comes this post.
http://blogs.thegospelcoalition.org/trevinwax/2009/10/29/understanding-the-german-mindset-during-world-war-ii-2/
Just another ineffective piece that persuades no one.
http://blogs.thegospelcoalition.org/trevinwax/2009/10/29/understanding-the-german-mindset-during-world-war-ii-2/
If Trump goes on to win, I wonder what lessons people will learn when it comes to persuasion.
“If Trump goes on to win, I wonder what lessons people will learn when it comes to persuasion”
If Trump wins I wonder what lesson people will learn after the first 4 years about not voting for people like Trump and possibly listen to those who tried to warn them.
Well, that may be said of any of the candidates, as they all may bring their share of misery.
The Trumpsters, if they lose due to people staying home, will always say “Hillary is awful. We should have united to vote and defeat her, etc.
Sorry for the multiple posts.
A brokered convention will destroy the Republican party forever. I for one agree with Ted Cruz, I will support whomever gets the Republican nomination. Further, the very idea that Hilary Clinton wouldn’t be worse than Donald Trump is just not a serious consideration.
My analysis for the night for the NeverTrump campaign. 1) Hope that Cruz holds on in Mississippi, keeping Trump from the magic 50% number, at this point I think Trump will be denied a majority. If Trump reaches 50% he gets all the delegates, as it is Cruz stands to gain a few thus helping him in the possibility of an outright win and denying Trump delegates. 2) Michigan was a threeway split, Trump, Kasich, and Cruz. Kasich has now set himself as the number three candidate. Unless Rubio does well in Hawaii or Idaho, he is done. In spite… Read more »
No doubt Rubio isn’t getting the nomination, but I’m still seeing reports that polls show him with a very good chance to win Florida. If he can win Florida, even if he gets NOTHING else, he makes a solid contribution to NeverTrump. It’s possible that Rubio’s poor showing tonight hurts his chances next week in Fla, of course. The other possibility is that it changes Cruz’s calculations. Maybe he doesn’t see Rubio as a threat anymore and stops going after him in Florida? I don’t know. Rubio isn’t going anywhere, but man, if he could take the 100 delegates in… Read more »
I agree with your analysis. I’m just not as optimistic as you. Rubio winning Florida would definitely boost never Trump. I just don’t see it happening. He was behind in the polls before tonight (although the polls have been off). I can only see his momentum going down. For the Cruzers (of which I am not one), they need Rubio to drop out to have any chance in Florida. Even then I predict a Trump win. For the NeverTrump, I don’t see Rubio winning Florida, but he might as well stay as he’s got the better chance. I think Rubio… Read more »
Something else that people need to take note of….record crowds are turning out to vote in the Republican Primary. I mean, people are so fed up and angry that they’re showing up to vote for Trump. I think a lot of us may have underestimated the anger and frustration of a whole lot of Americans, out here, who are just sick of all the PC, liberal views and agendas that have been shoved down their throats during the Obama years. And now, they’re fired up, and they’re voting.
David
:Don’t listen to the Trumpeters at Fox! This is shaping up to be a pretty good night for “NeverTrump.” NeverTrump won Michigan 27 delegates to 21 (Kasich and Cruz combined). It looks like Mississippi is going to keep Der Trumper under 50% and Cruz will get some delegates there, denying him a sweep. Right now, Cruz is WAY ahead in Idaho. What’s gonna happen in Hawaii? Who on earth knows? I didn’t know that Hawaii even had Republicans!! It’s possible that by the end of the day NeverTrump might end up with just about as many delegates and the Donald.… Read more »
If my math is correct, the delegate count right now is about even between Trump and NeverTrump.
Hawaii will decide things for the night.
Trump won Hawaii.
I’ll focus on the here and now world. The fact is no one can assume just because in the Primaries someone did not vote for Trump does not mean they won’t vote for Trump in the General election. So this talk of NeverTrump winning is just plain foolish logic. If you don’t support Cruz NOW you are supporting Trump. It’s time to stop living with this fantasy candidate NeverTrump. Put real effort in a real candidate. It is time to call your family and friends that have not voted and garner support for a real canidate. It is time you… Read more »
It is largely comments like that which turned me off to Cruz. The messianic nature of some Cruz support was off-putting.
I’m not impressed with Cruz. I’m not required to be.
I’m very unimpressed with Trump.
So if it’s all the same to you, I’ll follow my conscience and not be bullied by your commands.
For now, I’m more concerned that Trump not be the candidate than that Cruz be it. If Cruz steps up, fine. But he has to earn it.
The “messianic nature” is your reading. I said Cruz is flawed. Christ is not flawed. Continue to support vaporware, in NeverTrump. What happened to the man that 8 days ago posted and said: March 1st “There’s no more time to dither on this. The Trumpmare has to end! It’s time for Marco and Ted to stop fighting each other and join forces to fight for a nation that needs a break.” I support this statement, even if you don’t anymore. You have a right to be flexible. You say you dislike Cruz because some Cruz support was off-putting. If I… Read more »
It’s strange how that idea about Cruz and Rubio joining forces to stop Trump ended up not being such a good idea after Rubio failed to perform on Super Tuesday.
FoxNews Exit polls: Mississippi actual votes: Trump-47.3%, Cruz-36.3%, Kasich-8.8%, Rubio-5.1%, Other-2.5% (Kasich+Rubio=13.9%) “If these had been the only candidates on the ballot today, would you have voted for:” Trump-50%, Cruz-44%, Would not have voted-5%” Cruz would have only picked up slightly more than half (~56%) of Kasich and Rubio’s voters. Trump would have picked 1/5 of them and 1/3 would have stayed home. Trump wins 53% of the vote to Cruz 47% (Accounting for lower voter turnout) Michigan actual vote: Trump-36.5%, Cruz-24.9%, Kasich-24.3%, Rubio-9.3%, Other-5%. (Kasich+Rubio=33.6). “If these had been the only candidates on the ballot today, would you have… Read more »
From what I see, Trump needs to win 60% of the remaining delegates to get the nomination outright. Cruz needs to win 68% of what’s left to win outright. Rubio would need 85% and Kasich 92% (both are pretty much unrealistic). For Cruzers, your target going forward is to get 68% of the delegates (anything less and you have to fight for brokered convention). Something you guys need to ask is not whether Rubio and Kasich’s dropping out gives support to give Cruz a majority, but whether it gets him to the 68% of remaining delegates threshold. Again, laying dreams… Read more »
As you stated if Cruz got your 53% Michigan votes he would have received 100% of the delegates. Along with 100% Idaho delegates in a 2 man race. More total delegates awarded in Idaho than Iowa. The most interesting stat I heard last night on the news was that Cruz only spent around $1,000 on Michigan campaign. So it looks to me like Rubio, Kasich, and NeverTrump people are working for Trump to be the nominee reading your analysis. Interesting strategy. I’ll continue to work for a real person Cruz to be the nominee till the last delegate is counted… Read more »
Good Lord … Trump swept another 3 states yesterday!
Remember the “Reagan Democrats”? If Trump gets the nomination, we may very well see “Clinton Republicans” emerge … God forbid!
NeverTrump is doomed unless the opposition candidates unite. Common sense calls for this. As long as opposition to him is divided he will walk to 1237 – the nomination – and get his posterior kicked by Hillary Clinton. We have candidates in the race who are having varying degrees of moderate success in some states and pitiful outcomes in others – we have two candidates who quite often do not even get enough votes to gain a single delegate in proportional states. The varying (however slight) degrees of success that they are having or taking away enough support from the… Read more »
I want to let everyone know that I am sincerely sorry if my comments throughout the course of this thread offended anyone personally. Politics is a passionate subject and it is quite likely that my passion exceeded the boundaries of decorum. Please know that I didn’t mean to imply anything personally, I was merely “campaigning” against the politicians I personally dislike. This is a good reminder that politics, sports, and calvinism are probably not the best things to get passionate about on voices. So I won’t start talking about my St. Louis Cardinals because I know Dave will only “trump”… Read more »
If you like visual snapshots or appreciate concise summaries, you might like this site. Unfortunately, it does not (yet) include Kasich. It charts delegate acquisition against a timeline and toward the 1237 goal. Pretty interesting.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/
I think the ONE workable solution is an alliance between Cruz and Rubio. It would have to be secret, I guess. Cruz agrees to back off to help Rubio win Florida and secretly encourage his people to support him.
After Rubio wins, they join forces as the Cruz/Rubio campaign.
If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, it’s time to start forming a new party and let the Der Trumper have the skeletal remains of the GOP.
That was evidently worth saying twice?
What ever happened to the original deal where whoever (between Cruz and Rubio) got the least number of delegates on Super Tuesday would step down and agree to be the winners Vice President? Was that only a good idea when you thought that your candidate (Rubio) was going to perform? If Rubio had performed on Super Tuesday, you would have been writing blogs every day calling for Cruz to step down because it was the only way to beat Trump. Since your candidate did not perform on Super Tuesday you instead came up with this ridiculous NeverTrump strategy. Your thought… Read more »
I do not know how else to say this. So here goes….I must question the sincerity of “NeverTrump” as delineated in this post. Supporting an imaginary conservative ghost named “nevertrump” while actively rejecting the only actual and living conservative candidate who is actually and consistently competing against him (Ted Cruz) seems irrational. Maybe it should be called NeverTrump(orCruz). I am not saying that are being dishonest, Dave – but I am saying that it seems that your “NeverTrump lets find an alternative” motif has a clear and unambiguous contingency attached….that being “so long as the alternative is not Cruz”. That… Read more »
That’s because you assume Cruz can win. I don’t. And questioning my sincerity while saying your aren’t questioning my honesty is a distinction without a difference. I’m fairly used to you questioning my integrity, Dave. It’s nothing new. I have serious doubts as to whether Cruz can win. I think if he drives out Rubio and gives Florida to Trump, he’s pretty much handed him the nomination on a platter. If you’d stop questioning my integrity and listen to what I’m saying, it might make a little sense. Cruz is up nearly 200 on Rubio. Let’s say Cruz tells his… Read more »
Dave Miller, To be absolutely and 100% unequivocally clear – I did not intend to convey – nor do I believe it to be true – that you were being dishonest. As I’ve told you in private conversations – I will repeat here – I believe you to be an honest person – I have never mean to imply otherwise. I apologize for my poor wording in the post above – what I was intending to convey is that the whole idea of “nevertrump” – which BTW did not originate with you – seems insincere – because without an actual… Read more »
You pretty much are giving us the Cruz campaign talking points, Dave. I don’t buy them.
I think the ONE workable solution is an alliance between Cruz and Rubio. It would have to be secret, I guess. Cruz agrees to back off to help Rubio win Florida and secretly encourage his people to support him. After Rubio wins, they join forces as the Cruz/Rubio campaign. I think that is actually MORE likely after last night. Rubio stunk it up pretty badly and has to realize he’s on life support. The #2 spot may be looking better to him than it was a couple weeks ago. I don’t think that’s gonna happen. But if you look at… Read more »
The strategy that I would expect from all 4 remaining candidate is to run to WIN the states they are competing in. The tactic I would expect of the candidates is to use all available resources to win in a Legitimate method . Being disingenuous and having a secret agenda to me is tantamount to lying. It would be stealing supporters money and volunteers time. Something that would cause me to drop my support if the secret leaked out from the 500,000 conspirators.
It also turns out a secret agenda between 2 candidates running for the same office would likely violate Federal Election Law 30124. And we know the media would be nonstop for days skewering the candidates to the point that their political carriers would be toast forever. § 30124. Fraudulent misrepresentation of campaign authority (a)In general . No person who is a candidate for Federal office or an employee or agent of such a candidate shall— (1)fraudulently misrepresent himself or any committee or organization under his control as speaking or writing or otherwise acting for or on behalf of any other… Read more »
OK, Tarheel, Cruz is my guy. I voted for Marco here in Georgia but now he is toast…don’t think there is post/ergo hoc thing working there.
Fiorina’s absolutely scintillating endorsement speech was, as I and others say, the best speech of the entire 2016 campaign.
…still wish little pouting Teddy would smile occasionally.
Welcome, William. LOL
It almost seems he’s self-conscious about his smile – and if you’ve ever really seen him smile you know why. LOL
Beauty contests he will not win….I guess his mama and Heidi think so though.
Electability and the polls – I am aware there are better places to obtain the following information than at the end of a mile-long string of comments on SBC Voices, but for whatever it is worth . . . The most recent NBC/WSJ poll STILL shows that only Rubio has a shot at beating any Democrat in the general election. Of course, he has to win the nomination, which appears to be unlikely. Clinton v. Trump – Clinton wins by 13 pts Clinton v. Cruz – Clinton wins by 2 pts Clinton v Rubio – Tie Sanders v Trump –… Read more »
I would think a 2 point difference in Clinton vs Cruz would be consider the margin of error in any poll, thus considered a tie. Sanders vs Trump at +18 is to me incredible that a socialist could win against a capitalist in America. Makes me wonder how this poll was slanted in the sampling. Which is known to happen frequently in polling. Scary thought, Bern vs Ego in the General election. I think I would have to leave this country if that turned out to be the General election, and move to Idaho. Then again these type of polls… Read more »
Serious question: What are we gonna call the new party when Trump is the nominee? Seriously, that guy has NO decent ideas, promotes violence at his rallies, has absolutely nothing but hubris to offer America, and people are swallowing his swill like it’s fine wine (er…Welches). I’m at the point of despair – maybe that has something to do with the fact that I’ve had both regular migraines and cluster headaches every day for the last 5 weeks. Maybe I’m in a migraine and medication-induced coma of depression. But if America is buying what this guy is selling – IT”S… Read more »
Revival Party noun 1. restoration to life, consciousness, vigor, strength, etc. 2. restoration to use, acceptance. We disagree on Strategy and Tactics but not on Substance. I cannot imagine Burn, Screech, or Ego running this country. I share your pain with headaches, the worst I have had in my life and longest lasting day after day. One day of headaches rolls into the next. Yes I truly feel your pain. Look up Winston Churchill quotes and put them up around your computer. If you’re going through hell, keep going. Winston Churchill Attitude is a little thing that makes a big… Read more »
What party is this Winston Churchill fella running in?
The “Return MY BUST to the White House” Party.
I’m reading that Carson will endorse Trump, the guy that all but called him a pedophile, erasing any lingering respect I had for the man. If anyone had any doubts about the reality of total depravity, they haven’t been watching this election cycle.
Hard to believe, but I think maybe he’s not forgiving Cruz for the stuff that happened up here. Just a thought.
Not forgiving Cruz is understandable. But endorsing Trump is just moon-bat crazy. Remember when I said I trusted him to do surgery? Retracted.
Bill, You do not have to worry, Dr. Carson does brain surgery=======hey it is a joke just a joke , not serious
That whole “stuff that happened up here” narrative has been fueled by Trump. Trump has apparently made Carson believe that Cruz only won in Iowa because votes were stolen from him. The reality is that Carson received about the same percentage of the vote that he was polling at. His campaign peaked very early, went back down, and never recovered. He actually did a little better in Iowa than I thought he was going to do. I understand the tweet thing and why Carson was upset about it, but Ted Cruz himself had nothing to do with it. It was… Read more »
I think Carson had a real sense of being God’s man or something, and the loss in Iowa really shook him up.
When the Cruz campaign (not Cruz himself, his operatives) did what they did, he latched on to that.
Trump, the dishonest opportunist, really seized on it. “Cruz cheated me out of the win.” The scope was small – maybe a % or 2. Limited to certain areas.
A) I think it hurt Carson’s feelings, became an excuse, and led to this insanity today.
B) I wish I could revoke my prayer of blessing at the Carson rally
“I wish I could revoke my prayer of blessing at the Carson rally.”
That’s what you get for playing kissy face with a politician.
Bill Mac, I only know you through blogging, and I can say that through that interaction I respect you. One thing I don’t understand is how can you lose all respect for someone who simply disagrees with you politically? Further, with all due respect to you and Dave, there is no way that you guys can know whether or not Dr. Carson has forgiven Senator Cruz or not. It may be that he simply sees the hand writing on the wall and wants to get behind his party’s nominee. Further, Senator Cruz himself said that he will support whomever gets… Read more »
You are expressing my feelings exactly Dave, and those who I would have thought would see the above things in Trump, people I have personally spoken to, are ready to vote for him if he wins the nomination. I was shocked to say the least. It seems he is seen as taking the White house back for the people and nothing else matters. See no evil hear no evil is alive and well. And I’m not even sure now that Hilary could beat him the movement is so big. It seems he has a very good chance of winning the… Read more »
“It seems he has a very good chance of winning the Presidency.”
Debbie, I think this hits on his great appeal to a lot of people — that he is the candidate who can actually beat Hillary.
Here’s a couple of quotes that Yahoo News gives from Carson’s new conference/announcement in Palm Beach.
“I’ve come to know Donald Trump over the last few years. He is actually a very intelligent man who cares deeply about America. There are two different Donald Trumps. There’s the one you see on the stage and there’s the one who’s very cerebral.”
“I prayed about it a lot. I got a lot of indications — people calling me that I hadn’t talked to in a long time saying, ‘I had this dream about you and Donald Trump.’”
lol…wow
“I prayed a lot etc.”
It amazes me how God also gave us eyes and a brain, yet I prayed a lot seems to be the mantra as well.
I had a dream about Trump….
…it was a nighmare! 🙂
nighmare (sic) …nightmare
Nice.
If Trump is a lost man, then I wonder what he thinks about Christianity after reading blog posts and comments and Tweets made by Christians? And, of course, everything points to him not knowing Christ. I really doubt that all the hateful, mean, nasty things being said about him by hristians and Christian leaders would draw him to our Lord.
And again, I am not a Trump supporter.
BTW, Carson endorsed Trump rhis morning.
Carson is a good man, no matter how harsh and judgmental some of y’all want to be. Why he is endorsing Trump is a mystery. But, he is. He has his reasons.
Yes, he has his reasons. His friends had dreams with him and Trump.
Oh, and the Trump we see on the stage is not the real Trump. I guess being two-faced is now an admirable character trait.
David, I also think Carson is a good man, and that his endorsing Trump is a mystery (especially at this point in the race). It is a mystery that may be revealed sooner or later. The reasons that the news I read alluded to were not, in my opinion, good reasons — either Trump having a dual personality or folks having dreams about Carson and Trump. (Don’t know the context, but that sounds like a P-VP ticket to me.) But I’m sure more, and possibly less skewed, will continue to come out on why Carson endorsed Trump. While I am… Read more »
“Why he is endorsing Trump is a mystery.”
Carson says Trump has “very cerebral” side.
Good Lord! If we get any more open-minded about a Trump presidency, our brains will fall out!
David: Do you read yourself? Do you actually believe what you are writing here?
Look, I’m not a Trump supporter. I plan to vote Tuesday here in MO for Cruz. But I think David has a point. I don’t know why, but I don’t even remember seeing this much vitriol for abortion supporting President Obama. Nor for abortion supporting Hillary. Not just here, but my Facebook feed is filled each day with Christians saying some pretty awful things about Trump. Whether he is a Christian or not, is this the best way to present ourselves? And then there’s the vitriol for Christians who dare say they may actually vote for him in the primary… Read more »
Also, this goes the other way too of course. Trump supporters who are Christians may very well be trusting in kings and princes more than trusting in the Lord, seeing Trump as a salvation for our nation. And some of them can be pretty unChristian in their words and actions.
I would argue that there is a difference in approaching the wolf (President Obama, Sec Clinton, ect), and approaching a wolf trying to pretend it is a sheep (Mr Trump). I would argue that different approaches do need to be taken. In the first case, “most” sheep know it is a wolf and don’t need to be reminded. In the other, some of the “low information sheep” actually think the wolf IS a sheep. You can’t just get rid of the wolf-sheep, you have to prove it is a wolf. And even then, these sheep still are likely to follow… Read more »
I don’t know SVMuschany. Do you think that most self described evangelicals who support Trump think he is really of the sheepfold? Or, that they know he’s probably not but it doesn’t matter?
I do not know what is worse…Thinking Trump is a sheep or knowing he is a wolf and not caring.
But even still, why such vitriol as some try to point out inconsistencies…and name calling?
So what happens if he is elected Prez? End of life as we know it? Less religious freedom? etc. etc.? Does the US experience an apocalypse?
Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
If you spell out Donald Trump in Hebrew then transliterate into French, then asign each letter a hexadecimal value and add the result you get 666.
(sorry. Couldn’t resist)
“Some trust in chariots and some in horses,
but we trust in the name of the LORD our God.”
God’s people should not despair, even if Trump is elected.
Sorry gentlemen. I am really not trying to be preachy. You all are likely more godly ministers of the gospel that I ever could be (except Debbie, not a pastor). I’m needing to be reminded of these things as well. Times will likely get even worse for Christians in the US before they get better. How we respond is critical. “Beloved, do not be surprised at the fiery trial when it comes upon you to test you, as though something strange were happening to you. But rejoice insofar as you share Christ’s sufferings, that you may also rejoice and be… Read more »
My concern over the Trump ascendancy is twofold.
1. Concern for our country, in terms of the kind of president Trump would be.
2. Concern for our country, in terms of what Trump’s ascendancy reveals about us. We are a far darker nation than what I would have hoped.
Bill Mac,
“1. Concern for our country, in terms of the kind of president Trump would be.”
Ok. Concern. Could be better or worse than previous presidents. Presidents come and go.
“2. Concern for our country, in terms of what Trump’s ascendancy reveals about us. We are a far darker nation than what I would have hoped.”
I don’t think so. We already for the last quarter century, pre Trump, have seen an absolutely incredible moral decline. We’re already far worse off than one man could make our lives. To borrow Bork’s title, we have already slouched toward Gomorrah.
Yes Les, it shows we have slouched toward Gomorrah when Christians support Trump.
We have also come a long way. We helped refugees in this country, we allowed Muslims in this country, we were closer to treating humans better, even if their skin color or nationality was different than ours.
Now school children are telling Mexicans, Muslim children that Trump will have them deported if they don’t do what he wants them to.
How many times does this have to be explained Les? David? I really don’t understand your questioning the speaking out of all things Trump.
Evangelizing Trump seems a very spiritual reason not to speak against him , but it’s not. It seems now Franklin Graham is now uncomfortable with Trump based on what he has written lately and Max Lucado….well he’s just hit it out of the park several times.
BTW: Trump should have been evangelized with Falwell Jr. and Liberty University surrounding him. Come on fellas.
Debbie, I do not think it is wrong to speak about Trump, Cruz, Hillary of whoever in defense of policies etc. But in my view the hate filled name calling and open loathing of Trump especially is unbecoming of a believer, IMHO.
Walk in wisdom toward outsiders, making the best use of the time. Let your speech always be gracious, seasoned with salt, so that you may know how you ought to answer each person.
Les: In the context of this verse I haven’t seen any name calling.
Now if you are talking about the words xenophobic, racist, misogyny. These speak to his character and it should be named.
Really Les. And keeping Donald Trump out of office is the first and foremost thought on my mind. I doubt that will happen, but I am going to continue to be brutally honest on all things Trump.
The Bible also talks on how God feels about evil and what we as Christians are to do about it. I don’t think anyone speaking out against Trump has to worry about going against the Bible or disobeying God.
Debbie,
“In the context of this verse I haven’t seen any name calling.”
You do not surprise me.
After reading some nasty comments in other places this morning, I made the comment that what some believe to be prophetic voice more resembles worldly behavior.
It’s tough. I’m convinced that Trump is following the fascist playbook in rising to power (I don’t think he’s consistent enough to actually have fascist ideology, but he’s following the playbook) and he will follow the Obama tendencies toward imperial presidency (begun perhaps by Bush, expanded by Obama) to the point where our nation’s constitutional freedoms will cease to be ours. It’s not that I think Hillary or Bernie are improvements or that I would vote for them, but that Trump is hijacking the party I’ve been part of for all my life. There are some good candidates that could… Read more »
The fascist playbook: take advantage of general chaos (much of which you start yourself) in order for the people to embrace a strong leader. Take out your political foes (executions) and set up a dictatorship. Communist playbook, fascist playbook yada yada same thing same outcome. I guess the question should be “Why is America choosing Trump?” The answer may surprise you. If you fail to see the answer, then you will continue as you have. If you don’t want to accept the answer, ditto. If you accept the answer, then what are you willing to work too seeing that God… Read more »
I wasn’t happy when America chose Obama. But when MY party chooses Trump, I realize how far the decay has gone.
Did you ever “own” the Republican party to call it “mine”? The decay has been ever apparent way before Trump arrived on the scene. Where have you been? This is a problem with American Christianity. We have been lulled into complacency thinking that whatever politician we elect will save or harm us = forgetting that God is in control of everything regardless if we are “saved” or “harmed” by them. We have been told not to have vitriol, hatred, or bitterness but to Rejoice! (Philippians 4:9). He has called us to be faithful with what we have and He takes… Read more »
I think it’s fairly obvious that when I said, “my party” I did not mean that I owned it.
I also think that your response to that shows the likelihood of this conversation producing a positive result, so I will bow out.
No it was not fairly obvious = why the vitriol if you have no ownership? It is logical that those ideas or objects or organizations we embrace or self-identify as are those things we value. When humans express words like (in example) “my church” “my home” they are expressing identity with as well as ownership. It’s okay Dave – we all do it.
I am glad our conversation is producing a positive result. I would not want it to be any other way :-).
Rob
Again, since you are determined in your misrepresentation, I see no reason to continue.
Rob: At the risk of “I wish I hadn’t answered”, I have to, it’s jumping out of me as it’s so obvious even to you I am sure.
It has nothing to do with ownership. My church, my family, my convention, my party, indicates belonging to. Period. So your argument has no merit, and frankly I don’t get what your argument is anyhow. Ownership? What has that got to do with Trump?
Dave – I really do not know what is going with you. You are short = brief = and angry. You did not use to be like this. I do not know what I have done to merit such dismissive retorts from you (if I get any at all = I guess I should be happy you are replying to me after many posts on multiple topics over the last few years = it has not gone unnoticed). Which part have I misrepresented? The part that you are angry? The part you have ownership in something you deny? Which?
Rob
Debbie = belonging to an organization embeds a sense of ownership. Most human beings do not on the spur of the whim “join” something that they will put emotional capital in unless they are sure = and once joined they are a part of it lock stock and barrell. Now this emotional bond takes on varying degrees. Some are more involved than others = I may pay the dues for the PTA but never attend the meetings = but the Lion’s club I am present for every meeting, for every party. I may not call the PTA “mine” but I… Read more »
OK Rob: This I believe is silly but yet you have brought up something that is kind of worth pursuing. It has nothing to do with owning anything. It is a matter of deeply caring what happens to this country because we love her. We love the people in it. It is also a matter of self preservation. That cannot be denied. But for me personally and I think Dave as well, I do not want Trump President because it would set America back in time years. It will undo the bloodshed of many who believed Civil rights and Martin… Read more »
I don’t want Trump to get the nomination because I believe that he’s not a godly man and I believe that when the founders created our system of government they intended for it to be administered by moral leaders. They didn’t believe it would work otherwise and neither do I. However, I don’t believe Trump’s un-American. I think you may be exaggerating just a tad.
I’ll also be honest in the fact that it turns my stomach slightly to hear praises of Trump from a Christian or defense of him and then to spout Bible verses or to hear Jesus is Lord etc. as the two in my mind are not compatible.
Ok, the establishment Republicans are trying to stop Trump. Now they are joined by Sanders and Hillary supporters and of course moveon.org and the secret Service had to jump up on the stage this morning to surround Trump perceiving a possible life threatening situation (You have to utterly respect the Secret Service guys, willing to take the bullets). If there is this much opposition to Trump by establishment Rs and socialists together, I have decided to vote for Trump in the Missouri primary Tuesday. If all those groups don’t want him to win the nomination, then they must be very… Read more »
Debbie the whole discussion about “ownership” was a side show – I agree with you. The substantive part of my conversation was after I asked that question. If you wish to read it and reply, then go right ahead.
Rob
Les, voting for someone because who is against him, rather than his actual policies, is exactly what is wrong with this country. Trump has absolutely no proof he is going to govern from a conservative point of view. He has absolutely no history doing so, and has only held conservative positions for the past 4 years, which coincide with how long he has planned to run for Republican office. All you have is his word, a word which he has proven time and time again he will break if it suits his own interests. Compare this to someone like Cruz,… Read more »
“(You have to utterly respect the Secret Service guys, willing to take the bullets).” Les, You are right as the rain. The guys who protect the POTUS have a serious task and often a very thankless task. I realize that in the not too distant past some of them got themselves in trouble and brought shame upon a group that most of the time have had a spotless history of sterling service to POTUS, other government officials, and to this nation. That being said, the guys from the service branches who guard the POTUS are the best of the best.… Read more »
CB,
I was watching that speech today when the Secret Service guys jumped up on the stage and surrounded Trump, ready to take a bullet for him. I replayed it for my wife and we both just had a shudder for a moment, knowing that we have men willing to do that for Trump, Hillary, President Obama, Sanders, Cruz, Rubio, Kasich. Just amazing.
I will surely remember “yours” as he serves.
Les: The fact that Trump is your guy does not surprise me. I will however be waiting on the sidelines as all of you who vote for Trump and he is all we have warned of and more, hear a loud “I told you so” coming from my mouth. It’s either that or a “shame on you” haven’t decided which I am so disgusted with so many Christians right now.