Okay, guys, it’s time for some strategy. I have to admit that this election cycle has confused me more than any before. The American electorate has changed and I just don’t understand it anymore. But there’s a big question that we, the members of the SBC Voices Super PAC (we’ve contributed 0$ to 0 candidates and raised $0 so far) need to discuss. It’s about the upcoming Florida GOP primary. It is one of the first 2 winner-take-all primaries and there are about 100 delegates (perhaps 99?) at stake. The guy with the most votes gets them ALL! If Trump wins, he’s on his way to the nomination. If Rubio can pull out a win in his home state, he’s back in the game, but if he loses he’s pretty much done. Then there is Cruz. He’s been surging and is in second place. He’d pretty much given up on Florida, but now he’s opening offices and trying to make a play.
Here’s the Cruz dilemma:
- If he gains ground it will likely be by pulling support from Rubio, guaranteeing a Trump victory and helping the Donald toward the nomination. He drives Rubio out of the race but makes it less likely that he can win. If Trump wins both Ohio and Florida, you can pretty much start printing the ballots for the fall.
- If he helps Rubio win, it prevents Trump from gaining ground, but it brings Rubio back in as genuine threat and makes the idea of a brokered convention even more likely. It is generally agreed that Cruz will not emerge as the nominee from a brokered convention.
So, it would seem that Cruz has to decide if he can win the nomination outright by driving Rubio from the race. And, if he does that, he’d better succeed because the seeming cooperation between the campaigns would be over. If he throws the long bomb, tries to drive Rubio from the race and make it a two-man race (ignoring Kasich), there is much that can go wrong. Rubio could still win or Trump could win Florida (likely) and if he adds Ohio, then Cruz is finished. He has managed to ruin Rubio AND himself.
Here are the ground rules for our discussion:
1) The SBC Voices Super PAC is committed to that candidate called NeverTrump.
We are not about reviving Rubio’s flagging chances, nor are we about getting Cruz elected.
I know that is hard for some of the more passionate Cruzites, who think he is destined to align the planets, balance the force, and usher in the millennium. But we aren’t trying to figure out how to further Cruz, but about how to stop Trump.
2) Trumpites, sit this one out.
You guys can’t believe anyone doesn’t love Trump. We don’t. We want to stop him. The issue is how to do that. You can feel free to weigh in on the topic, but you can’t ridicule or bluster.
3) Candidate insults are not welcome – stick to the topic.
Don’t bash Cruz or Rubio. We aren’t even going to bash Trump – we assume he needs to be defeated! This is a limited discussion, about promoting a single candidate, NeverTrump.
The issue is simple. How do we advance our candidate “NeverTrump” in the Florida primary?
- The Cruz campaign wants to force Rubio out and make it a one-on-one with Trump, but is this best for our guy, NeverTrump?
- Rubio wants to win and get back in, but is that what is best for NeverTrump?
Here are the current delegate counts, thanks to our campaign’s statistician, “Poor Richard.”
Trump – 384 (31% of what is required for nomination)
Cruz – 300 (24%)
Rubio – 151 (12%)
Kasich – 37 (3%)
All others – 20 (1.6%)
Trump has 384 delegates and the others combined have 508. Obviously, that means that at this point, we are headed to a brokered convention. You have to win 50% of the delegates, plus 1. But if you add the Florida and Ohio delegates to Trump, he’s likely to be on his way, especially if he wins Michigan tomorrow.
1. Is there any realistic hope that Cruz can actually WIN in Florida or Ohio? (I don’t think so)
2. Is it not true that Cruz’ involvement in Florida is almost guaranteeing a Trump victory?
3. If Trump wins Florida (driving Rubio out) is there a path to victory for Cruz in a one-to-one race?
4. Can NeverTrump win if Trump wins Florida?
5. Is a brokered convention that bad of an option?