A lot of smart SBC people have looked at the summary of SBC statistics that were just made public and know a lot more than I do. The Baptist Press article, SBC reports more churches, fewer people by LifeWay writer Carol Pipes is what we usually get, almost a template where the numbers are changed from year to year. So…
1. There are more SBC churches. 46,499 in 2014, up 374 from the previous year. Hey, that’s about nine churches per state convention. I get the sense here (Georgia, near Atlanta, hotbed of pop-up, generic-name churches) that there is some replacement ecclesiology going on. It is rank speculation on my part, but it’s sort of like that old McDonald’s that was beyond renovation – tear it down and start something new. Call this increase good but mostly flat, less than one percent. On a sunny day when the birds are singing, I’d say that NAMB and the states are doing a good job with church planters and church planting.
2. Baptisms are down about 5,000. Look for this figure to be quickly Stetzerized, a continuance of a long, long trend downward, very slowly…decades old. I predict an increase when 2015’s baptisms are reported a year from now – up one year, down three…down long term.
3. Undesignated giving is down slightly. What is troublesome is that 2014 saw economic growth, rising stock market, and returning jobs. The older, heavier church givers are dying. After that, most don’t drop that tithe check in the plate on Sunday.
4. Great Commission Giving figures should be ignored. The state conventions of Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri and Oklahoma don’t ask churches to report this. Lots of people were not happy that this category of giving was created. Maybe a bit of passive-aggressive behavior from these states? Hey, no one at LifeWay enforces ACP reporting.
There are so many footnotes to these statistical tables that might make big differences in the figures. Georgia, for example, reports “total membership” based on change from previous year reporting of “resident membership.”
Oh, and the tables include 9,731 churches that didn’t report at all in 2014. LifeWay just carried figures over from 2013 on those. Nothing nefarious in that. I think that has been the practice. I hear that about 20% of churches don’t complete the ACP. Can’t say that it was the highlight of the year when I was pastoring.
It looks to me like the numbers are less trustworthy as the years pass, although no one should presume that whatever numbers are coughed up by the ACP report anything but a slightly declining SBC.
Among the state conventions, Alabama reported almost a hundred fewer churches and a reduction of over two percent in total mission giving. I’d brag on Georgia but we have a “don’t ask, don’t tell” system for total mission giving. See LifeWay’s footnote. Iowa’s mission giving is up. South Carolina’s is up over four percent (the SC Baptist Convention sends money directly to the IMB. Make of that what you will). Their mission giving is up.
I appreciate the expressions of concern by our leaders but they don’t have a lot to do with what a given church or pastor does. The most salient comment I could make about these aggregate SBC and state convention statistics is that no pastor is responsible for what the SBC does or doesn’t do or what his state does or doesn’t do. Most of us always had a lot that needed to be done in our own church.
“Look for this figure to be quickly Stetzerized, a continuance of a long, long trend downward, very slowly…decades old.”
grin…
but, the baptism trend is not decades old… the membership, well, that’s another story…
Thanks. On the non-participation rate of churches in the ACP and the states refusing or changing stats they ask from their churches, you would say…?
Many of those states did NOT report these stats in the past, therefore the decline are real numbers. In other words, Alabama didn’t report Great Commission Giving last year, either. So, it’s not like Alabama reported, last year, and then, didn’t report, this year. Thus, the numbers went down. This decline is amongst Churches that DO report it. Correct?
Therefore, the decline in giving are very real declines.
Also, the decline in baptisms is very concerning.
David
Henny Penny, the sky is falling.
Adam,
Nope…I’m optimistic in Jesus. The Church will not fail. Heaven is in my future.
The SBC may not be around, though, unless things turn around.
David
Also, I meant to say “State Conventions” that report GC giving….not “Churches.”
The Figures: The Southern Baptist Convention saw the lowest number of baptisms since 1947. The number of baptisms has declined in eight of the past 10 years, according to the denomination. In 2014, baptisms declined by more than 5,000 to just over 305,000. The Problem: Everyone is talking about our lack of evangelism and how we have lost our burden for the lost. These are definitely factors. However their is another key difference between 2015 and 1947 that no one talks about: In 1947 95% of Southern Baptist Churches throughout the U.S. rejected alien (non-Baptist) immersions. For proof of this… Read more »
Interesting point. There are a lot of factors that go into the smaller numbers.
I agree with Ben. The numbers here may indeed reflect a change in our views on baptism more so than a decline in the evangelistic spirit. Whatever the evangelistic fervor of the 1940’s however, I still would like to see more evangelism taking place today.
Is there any data on the number of persons baptized as young children who are later re-baptized as teens or adults? I suspect that number may be declining as well.
None that I know of. I’ve seen limited studies that showed 40% of baptisms were of folks who had previously been baptized. There are too many variables.
It would be whistling past the graveyard to conclude that evangelistic fervor has not diminished among us…and having lots of Baptist babies.
Note that Baptism numbers are not the only thing that is down — I think the most significant stat, in terms of measuring our decline might be the drop in weekly worship attendance.
William,
This report is BOGUS. The reason – the issue is TRANSFORMATION of people into the fullness of the Image of Christ. We won’t even discuss this. This appears no where on the falacious ACP. It is what matters most and is not only ignored but resisted with a passion at every level.
Fallacious is strong. This report measures statistical growth. It’s a little hard to measure spiritual growth accurately. Are you saying the numbers are flawed or that we shouldn’t be doing a numerical report at all?
Brother,
Transformation is what we are called to accomplish. It may be difficult to measure and I agree it is – BUT – it is not impossible and to my knowledge we make no attempt at such.
Thanks for your response.
In Grace,
Tom
Tom,
We should be thanking William for sharing this information with us. It’s a good post for our general information. No one thinks that the report reflects genuine spirituality.
wilbur
Give the Executive Committee (on CP stats) and LifeWay (ACP and other stats) credit for putting data out here. I know many churches and pastors who, when they don’t like the data, just stop talking about or reporting them.
While the decline in baptisms is not decades old it is a decade old trend. From ’98 to ’02 Southern Baptist baptized around 400,000 a year. There has been a consistent decline since. We could name countless things as the cause of these numbers: Seinfeld was cancelled in ’98, people quit wearing livestrong bracelets, the Chevy blazer was discontinued in 2000. However, the decline in baptisms certainly does coincide with the death of revivals in the SBC. I remember “Good News America,” “Here’s Hope” and “Celebrate Jesus.” I remember laypeople preparing for these simultaneous revivals by going through soul winning… Read more »
I asked this in another thread…. I wonder how many of the new converts that were baptized in such large numbers are also among the ones who represent the fall in membership. Here is a new question… I also wonder how the idea of baptism = automatic membership has played into these reduced numbers relating to membership attendance? I also wonder how the fact that many churches are and have been “purging” their membership rolls of chronicly inactive persons may be playing into this. It seems to me that many are wanting to be either overly pessimistic and I am… Read more »
The decline in baptisms is bad. No matter how you slice it, dice it, and fry it. It’s bad. This means that we’re leading less and less people to the Lord. Of course, I’m not coming from a fatalistic viewpoint on this issue! 😉 The financial decline is also bad. It’s not good. And, no matter how someone tries to spin it; it’s still not good. Of course, membership rolls could be explained as Churches cutting inactive members off of their rolls, and Churches being more concerned with having a regenerate, Church membership. Yes, that is probably true. But, it’s… Read more »
I think that if you go down this road and attribute steep membership declines to purging rolls or such, you quickly run into a big ditch in that worship attendance is down over 2% just for one year. Most churches estimate this number, I suspect, and it is thoroughly Southern Baptistic to estimate high, so the actual figure is likely lower than stated.
Do you really think that people count attendance every Sunday, including the stragglers and then average that for the ACP? I imagine ACP is purely guesswork when it comes to worship attendance. Fiancees – our nation is in a recession/slow recovery/whatever and unemployment is up…that likely largely explains that. Baptisms being down – again – this does not necessarily indicate a reduction is sharing the gospel which is what we are called to do…we are not called to make converts…we are called to proclaim and then baptize and disciple the converts. It is my contention that the question local churches… Read more »
Tarheel, do you do the ACP for your church? Someone does, and they are asked for average worship attendance. They guess and guess high, I think. I do know a few churches that count heads every Sunday.
My point is that while declining MEMBERSHIP numbers may have some explanation on purges, etc., declining weekly ATTENDANCE leads us to dismiss anything other than that less people attend church. Since we estimate on the high side, a slightly steeper decline is likely what is true.
I agree with your last paragraph. None of us are responsible for an ugly LifeWay statistical table.
Our clerk fills out most of it – but I am the one who inputs the data at the SBDS site so I am familiar with it. Maybe you are right thought that churches do not literally count and estimate high…you probably are.
We do not literally count and we do not estimate high…in fact I have asked our clerk to estimate low because I detest the “numbers” competition among so many baptists….
“how many you running…”
“we had this many Sunday, you?”
I am going to Columbus next week – so I better start preparing myself! LOL
The actual figure is likely lower than stated, but probably not disproportionately so when considered alongside last year’s numbers.
I do not mean to suggest that I am not concerned. I am, however, infinitely more concerned about the situation in my local church where I have a better grasp of why our numbers are down than I am with the SBC collectively.
That is right, Adam…
Solutions to these issues will be local church based.
When Pew Research came out earlier in the year showing a decline in American Christianity, the consensus reaction seemed to be that the numbers showed a refining of the church and the death of “nominal” Christianity. Would not the same apply to our SBC figures? Could not much of the drop in membership, baptisms, and attendance be due to the decline of nominal Christianity within our ranks?
Not sure why William blogs. Nor why there are 27 comments so far.