At my personal site (www.davemillerdaily.com) I made some predictions about the Iowa caucuses. With the exception of predicting that Rand Paul would do well, I was surprised at their accuracy. So, I thought I’d put myself out on a limb one more time and try my hand at gazing into the proverbial crystal ball. Here are some of the things I see coming. If I am right, I will crow loudly about my accuracy. If I turn out to be wrong, this post might disappear and you will never hear any more about it! There will be a mixture of sports, politics, denominational, and other random predictions here.
1) Donald Trump will NOT be the GOP nominee.
I’ve been making this prediction for a long time, and I have to admit that my confidence is being tested. But here’s my thinking. Trump has been out there – few candidates have been covered like the Donald. He is the frontrunner among Republicans, but his support has not changed much. In Iowa, he got 24%, in New Hampshire it was about 35%. That is (to my chagrin) the best showing among GOP candidates. But look at it from another perspective. In Iowa, 76% of Republicans wanted someone else. In moderate New Hampshire, a perfect Trump state, 65% of the electorate voted against him.
The field is being culled slowly. The original 17 is now the surviving five. As people drop out, their votes are divided up among the candidates, but few go to Trump. Trump is almost no one’s second choice. When Bush and Kasich fade (I think they are the next to go), most of their voters will go to Rubio and Cruz. That will leave those two battling it out. Trump remains in the 30 to 35% range. Eventually, either Rubio or (hopefully) Cruz fades and Trump is no longer the front-runner.
There is an outside chance that the primaries do not sort things out and that the GOP ends up with a brokered convention. But Trump will not win enough delegates to win the nomination. He will not be the GOP nominee.
2) Hillary Clinton will NOT be the next president.
I never liked Bill Clinton – his lack of morality, his political malleability, his positions. But he was a forceful personality. People liked him. He was a compelling presence and gave powerful speeches that inspired people (who aren’t me).
Hillary Clinton is not Bill Clinton. Leaving behind her politics (which I hate), her lack of honesty (which is a big deal), her legal issues (which may be significant), she is just not a person people like. She lacks her husband’s personal charm and charisma. She will have the support of the national press who will treat her with great deference, but she just doesn’t inspire people like Bill did. She is often unlikable and won’t play well outside of blue states. The national election boils down to about 7 or 8 purple states (Florida, Ohio, Iowa, etc) and she will not bring in the independents and crossover votes that Bill and Barack did.
3) Tom Brady’s suspension will be reinstated.
Skip Bayless and others have been crowing about Brady being “exonerated” in the Deflategate scandal. However, this is far from over. The NFL and the NFLPA have an agreement and binding arbitration. The NFL got the case into a court in New York and the appeal will be heard by the Second Circuit Court of Appeals. From what I have read, the Second Circuit has a history of upholding binding arbitration agreements. Judges often side with the plaintiff and then the appeals court throws the verdict out.
In other words, the rules were broken and Goodell had the right to impose punishment. The NFLPA should, perhaps, not have given the commissioner the unfettered authority they gave him, but they gave it to him. Once you get to the appeals court, it is often not about the merits of the case, but the law, and what I have read says that Brady is likely to sit out the first four games of next season.
4) Peyton Manning’s year is going from the Penthouse to the Outhouse.
This story about the Title IX lawsuit at Tennessee is not going away. Peyton’s squeaky clean image is going to be dealt a blow and it is only likely to get worse. The press loves nothing more than to smear a name like Peyton – it sells! And, frankly, the story looks like it has legs. It appears that he might have been a grade A horse’s patoot when he was at Tennessee. Peyton’s year started with coming back from an injury to regain his starting spot and lead his team to the Super Bowl. It may end in the Toilet Bowl.
I am no fan of Tom Brady, but I’ve been a huge fan of #18 for a long time. This one is gonna hurt. It’s never fun to watch a hero fall. I sure hope I’m wrong about this one! I love Peyton and I’d hate to see his reputation tarnished. Even if he is eventually cleared, his name is going to be dragged through the mud. And this story seems to have legs.
5) No Supreme Court Justice will be named to replace Scalia until after the election.
And this will be a major campaign issue! (Duh). Hypocrisy will be on full display. Chuck Schumer, who declared about 17 months before the end of Bush’s term that no new nominees would be approved will bluster about obstructionism. Republicans who complained about Schumer and the Democrat’s obstructionism will engage in their own.
There are two caveats here.
- If the Republicans cave and approve a nominee, they will face a backlash that will make previous anti-establishment anger look tame.
- There have been suggestions that Obama might nominate a moderate in the Justice Kennedy mold – one that the Republicans would be hard-pressed to turn down. This would be a brilliant move but Obama is too much of an ideologue to do such a thing. He will go for the whole thing. Either nominee would change the nature of the court and doom pro-life cases, and pretty much any case we conservatives care about.
Scalia’s death may be the worst thing that happened to the conservative movement in the last 20 years.
6) The SBC Annual Meeting in St. Louis will leave us thankful Ronnie Floyd has been our president.
Columbus 2015 was one of the best meetings I’ve been to – the evening of prayer was as significant a time as I can remember. I did not vote for Ronnie, but helped to promote Dennis Kim who ran against him. I am glad that we supported the candidacy of a minority Baptist, but I’m also glad that Ronnie Floyd has been our president. He has done a great job.
I am expecting that St. Louis will be another wonderful convention led by Dr. Floyd.
7) Bart Barber will attend at least 2, perhaps 3 Cardinals games while in St. Louis.
This one is a no-brainer. A man has his priorities.
8) David Platt’s IMB report in St. Louis will be a key moment.
Last year’s report set the place on fire and that passion will likely be in evidence again in St. Louis. However, I doubt that Dr. Platt can expect another mic drop! Last year the place was stunned at the end of his presentation and no one asked a question. This year, I’m guessing the time will run out before the questions do. He would do well to be direct, transparent, humble, and forthright on everything.
9) The Chicago Cubs are DOOMED in 2016.
Sports Illustrated just picked them to win it all this coming year, ending their 458 (or so) year “Billy Goat” curse. I read Sports Illustrated regularly and their preseason picks in any sport are a surefire guarantee – to NOT win. In baseball last year they picked a World Series of Seattle and Washington – neither team made the playoffs. They picked (last place – YEAH!) Boston to go against Seattle for the right to go to the series. They did not pick either Kansas City or the Mets to even make the playoffs.
Sorry, Cubs. The curse lives on. SI has guaranteed it.
10) Healthcare costs will rise dramatically.
I thought it might be good for me to put one prediction up here I know will come true. The Bart Barber prediction is reasonably certain, but rainouts are a possibility. This one, since the advent of “Affordable” care, is a sure thing.
- The Yankees will win the World Series (this is more a pipe dream/wishful thinking than a prediction).
- Peyton Manning will retire, both because of his physical condition and because of the pressure of the Tennessee Volunteer Title IX scandal.
- My two books will remain OFF the NY TIMES bestseller list. I will publish another book (maybe two) which will join them OFF that list.
- Jerry Falwell, Jr. will say something that embarrasses the church and the cause of Christ.
- Discernment bloggers will continue to lose influence in the SBC because of their failure to exercise discernment in their own blogging.
- One of the entity leaders of the SBC will either resign or announce his retirement.
- Mike Leake and Micah Fries will continue to post annoying tributes to the Royals on Facebook. Mike will also make wildly inaccurate football predictions. My predictions here, as bad as they are, will be better than his predictions on football.
- At least one entity head will bash blogging and bloggers during his report at SBC 2016 in St. Louis. It will likely be someone who has a blog!
- There is a possibility that both Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg will attempt independent bids for the presidency. Whoever loses will blame them for his (or her) loss.
- My Iowa Hawkeyes will win the NCAA National Championship in basketball. (Another pipe dream). On the other hand, our football season next year will likely not be as successful.
- I will end 2016 at under 250 pounds. This is a GOAL more than a prediction. I’m also considering running a marathon on my birthday.