At my personal site (www.davemillerdaily.com) I made some predictions about the Iowa caucuses. With the exception of predicting that Rand Paul would do well, I was surprised at their accuracy. So, I thought I’d put myself out on a limb one more time and try my hand at gazing into the proverbial crystal ball. Here are some of the things I see coming. If I am right, I will crow loudly about my accuracy. If I turn out to be wrong, this post might disappear and you will never hear any more about it! There will be a mixture of sports, politics, denominational, and other random predictions here.
1) Donald Trump will NOT be the GOP nominee.
I’ve been making this prediction for a long time, and I have to admit that my confidence is being tested. But here’s my thinking. Trump has been out there – few candidates have been covered like the Donald. He is the frontrunner among Republicans, but his support has not changed much. In Iowa, he got 24%, in New Hampshire it was about 35%. That is (to my chagrin) the best showing among GOP candidates. But look at it from another perspective. In Iowa, 76% of Republicans wanted someone else. In moderate New Hampshire, a perfect Trump state, 65% of the electorate voted against him.
The field is being culled slowly. The original 17 is now the surviving five. As people drop out, their votes are divided up among the candidates, but few go to Trump. Trump is almost no one’s second choice. When Bush and Kasich fade (I think they are the next to go), most of their voters will go to Rubio and Cruz. That will leave those two battling it out. Trump remains in the 30 to 35% range. Eventually, either Rubio or (hopefully) Cruz fades and Trump is no longer the front-runner.
There is an outside chance that the primaries do not sort things out and that the GOP ends up with a brokered convention. But Trump will not win enough delegates to win the nomination. He will not be the GOP nominee.
2) Hillary Clinton will NOT be the next president.
I never liked Bill Clinton – his lack of morality, his political malleability, his positions. But he was a forceful personality. People liked him. He was a compelling presence and gave powerful speeches that inspired people (who aren’t me).
Hillary Clinton is not Bill Clinton. Leaving behind her politics (which I hate), her lack of honesty (which is a big deal), her legal issues (which may be significant), she is just not a person people like. She lacks her husband’s personal charm and charisma. She will have the support of the national press who will treat her with great deference, but she just doesn’t inspire people like Bill did. She is often unlikable and won’t play well outside of blue states. The national election boils down to about 7 or 8 purple states (Florida, Ohio, Iowa, etc) and she will not bring in the independents and crossover votes that Bill and Barack did.
3) Tom Brady’s suspension will be reinstated.
Skip Bayless and others have been crowing about Brady being “exonerated” in the Deflategate scandal. However, this is far from over. The NFL and the NFLPA have an agreement and binding arbitration. The NFL got the case into a court in New York and the appeal will be heard by the Second Circuit Court of Appeals. From what I have read, the Second Circuit has a history of upholding binding arbitration agreements. Judges often side with the plaintiff and then the appeals court throws the verdict out.
In other words, the rules were broken and Goodell had the right to impose punishment. The NFLPA should, perhaps, not have given the commissioner the unfettered authority they gave him, but they gave it to him. Once you get to the appeals court, it is often not about the merits of the case, but the law, and what I have read says that Brady is likely to sit out the first four games of next season.
4) Peyton Manning’s year is going from the Penthouse to the Outhouse.
This story about the Title IX lawsuit at Tennessee is not going away. Peyton’s squeaky clean image is going to be dealt a blow and it is only likely to get worse. The press loves nothing more than to smear a name like Peyton – it sells! And, frankly, the story looks like it has legs. It appears that he might have been a grade A horse’s patoot when he was at Tennessee. Peyton’s year started with coming back from an injury to regain his starting spot and lead his team to the Super Bowl. It may end in the Toilet Bowl.
I am no fan of Tom Brady, but I’ve been a huge fan of #18 for a long time. This one is gonna hurt. It’s never fun to watch a hero fall. I sure hope I’m wrong about this one! I love Peyton and I’d hate to see his reputation tarnished. Even if he is eventually cleared, his name is going to be dragged through the mud. And this story seems to have legs.
5) No Supreme Court Justice will be named to replace Scalia until after the election.
And this will be a major campaign issue! (Duh). Hypocrisy will be on full display. Chuck Schumer, who declared about 17 months before the end of Bush’s term that no new nominees would be approved will bluster about obstructionism. Republicans who complained about Schumer and the Democrat’s obstructionism will engage in their own.
There are two caveats here.
- If the Republicans cave and approve a nominee, they will face a backlash that will make previous anti-establishment anger look tame.
- There have been suggestions that Obama might nominate a moderate in the Justice Kennedy mold – one that the Republicans would be hard-pressed to turn down. This would be a brilliant move but Obama is too much of an ideologue to do such a thing. He will go for the whole thing. Either nominee would change the nature of the court and doom pro-life cases, and pretty much any case we conservatives care about.
Scalia’s death may be the worst thing that happened to the conservative movement in the last 20 years.
6) The SBC Annual Meeting in St. Louis will leave us thankful Ronnie Floyd has been our president.
Columbus 2015 was one of the best meetings I’ve been to – the evening of prayer was as significant a time as I can remember. I did not vote for Ronnie, but helped to promote Dennis Kim who ran against him. I am glad that we supported the candidacy of a minority Baptist, but I’m also glad that Ronnie Floyd has been our president. He has done a great job.
I am expecting that St. Louis will be another wonderful convention led by Dr. Floyd.
7) Bart Barber will attend at least 2, perhaps 3 Cardinals games while in St. Louis.
This one is a no-brainer. A man has his priorities.
8) David Platt’s IMB report in St. Louis will be a key moment.
Last year’s report set the place on fire and that passion will likely be in evidence again in St. Louis. However, I doubt that Dr. Platt can expect another mic drop! Last year the place was stunned at the end of his presentation and no one asked a question. This year, I’m guessing the time will run out before the questions do. He would do well to be direct, transparent, humble, and forthright on everything.
9) The Chicago Cubs are DOOMED in 2016.
Sports Illustrated just picked them to win it all this coming year, ending their 458 (or so) year “Billy Goat” curse. I read Sports Illustrated regularly and their preseason picks in any sport are a surefire guarantee – to NOT win. In baseball last year they picked a World Series of Seattle and Washington – neither team made the playoffs. They picked (last place – YEAH!) Boston to go against Seattle for the right to go to the series. They did not pick either Kansas City or the Mets to even make the playoffs.
Sorry, Cubs. The curse lives on. SI has guaranteed it.
10) Healthcare costs will rise dramatically.
I thought it might be good for me to put one prediction up here I know will come true. The Bart Barber prediction is reasonably certain, but rainouts are a possibility. This one, since the advent of “Affordable” care, is a sure thing.
Honorable Mention:
- The Yankees will win the World Series (this is more a pipe dream/wishful thinking than a prediction).
- Peyton Manning will retire, both because of his physical condition and because of the pressure of the Tennessee Volunteer Title IX scandal.
- My two books will remain OFF the NY TIMES bestseller list. I will publish another book (maybe two) which will join them OFF that list.
- Jerry Falwell, Jr. will say something that embarrasses the church and the cause of Christ.
- Discernment bloggers will continue to lose influence in the SBC because of their failure to exercise discernment in their own blogging.
- One of the entity leaders of the SBC will either resign or announce his retirement.
- Mike Leake and Micah Fries will continue to post annoying tributes to the Royals on Facebook. Mike will also make wildly inaccurate football predictions. My predictions here, as bad as they are, will be better than his predictions on football.
- At least one entity head will bash blogging and bloggers during his report at SBC 2016 in St. Louis. It will likely be someone who has a blog!
- There is a possibility that both Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg will attempt independent bids for the presidency. Whoever loses will blame them for his (or her) loss.
- My Iowa Hawkeyes will win the NCAA National Championship in basketball. (Another pipe dream). On the other hand, our football season next year will likely not be as successful.
- I will end 2016 at under 250 pounds. This is a GOAL more than a prediction. I’m also considering running a marathon on my birthday.
I feel good about your odds of scoring better than zero.
If anyone at Voices is going to a Cardinals game — count me in!
I think it’s interesting about Peyton. For a squeaky clean guy this is very serious. It’s possible he changed since at Tennessee, because it would be very hard to hide a lot of those things. If he’s guilty, as he appears to be, he should take the blame and move forward. But I bet he retires too.
Agree about Hilary. She is just so unlikable. Bill blatantly lied to the public, had an affair, in the Oval Office, and most everyone gives him a pass. She has none of that charm or charisma.
I’ll bite.
“In other words, the rules were broken and Goodell had the right to impose punishment.”
I will make a prediction here….
Brady will not sit out four games.
Caveat 1: Unless Godell can finally and actually offer proof beyond the afore standards of “likelihoods”, “assumptions” and “generalities” that Tom Brady actually broke those rules.
Caveat 2: Brady may accept a 1 or 2 (likely 2) game suspension with no admission of guilt – complete with the NFL admitting that they have no specific evidence that he actually broke the rules. The 2 game suspension will be for not cooperating with the investigators. Of course he and his lawyers will then say that they did not cooperate because it was a set up job from the beginning.
Brady fanatics!
The issue, as I said, at this point, is not the merits of the case. The issue is the law. It is, from my reading, on the side of the NFL. the NFLPA agreed to binding arbitration and that was carried out. They don’t like the binding arbitration and so they went to court, but the history of this appeals court is that they side with the binding arbitration.
In other words, you can argue for Brady all you want (and I know that if they caught him with a smoking gun, 4 bodies, and video, you’d argue for his innocence!) but the issue here is that the NFL acted within its rights.
The NFLPA was, perhaps, negligent to GIVE that right to the NFL in collective bargaining, but they did.
The judge ruled on the merits of the case – as he saw them. But he was not really permitted to do that because the sides had already agreed to binding arbitration.
I can’t help but notice that you seem to be pivoting from your previously strongly held position that “he is guilty” to a much more nuanced “well they agreed to binding arbitration” position now. 😉 😉 No wonder you like Rubio so much. If the facts in the way or it gets uncomfortable – just “pivot and clarify.” 😉
I stand by the most likely of my predictions that he will not serve a suspension and it he does it will be like my caveat #2.
Man, I worked an anti – Rubio jab into that one, cool!
I think he is guilty. But that is not the issue now.
Guilty of what, exactly?
Since nothing has been proven (and more specifically there has to be not even specific accusations against him personally) what exactly is he guilty of?
How can guilt not matter? Or is the end game just to see him punished?
Read the NFL’s report on the issue. They found him complicit in the deflation of the balls.
I have no doubt that you would never believe him guilty of anything, so there’s not much point in continuing the debate.
Miller out.
And no, I was making a prediction. From what I’ve read, the punishment is likely to be reinstated. Will that make me happy? Of course. A permanent ban would make me happy. Not saying it would be just, but it would make me happy.
But I’m making a prediction based on what I’ve read.
Obviously, you are not in the mood to do anything but play, “I’m rubber, you’re glue.” So, there is little point in continuing, as I said above.
I too am making a prediction based on what I’ve read.
And No, they found it likely that he “might have been generally knowledgable.”
That’s a far cry from guilty.
It’s obvious that you’re so dead set in your desire to see him punished that you’re blinded by a lack of meaningful grasp on reality relating to guilt or innocence so there’s no point in continuing the debate.
Heel out.
See? I’m familiar with the argumentum ad hominem, too.
So, if you’re right in ask of these we get to burn you at the stake b/c you’re a witch using instruments of sorcery. And if you’re wrong on any of them we get to stone you because you’re a false prophet making wrong claims.
Ooooo… This sounds fun!
😀
I’d offer two types of responses here.
You can pick mine apart.
You can make your own.
Because healthcare–actual healthcare not insurance–pricing signals are being conveyed more directly to consumers, they will modify behavior and will start haggling for price reductions and prices will go down (and are already trending down.
But in the meantime, there are many people who are exposed to more cost than they have ever been exposed to and it is going to be a painful process. We should encourage those seeking treatment to affirmatively negotiate price up front and to expect huge discounts especially for cash payments (think 70%). The prices were jacked up especially to get the governments (as single payers of most of Medicare, Medicaid, some VA work, and retiree costs) to stop rationing which was shifting costs onto private payers and therefore to premiums.
I think ObamaCare will be further reformed especially if a Republican takes office and even more so if the coattails in the Senate are long. But the idea that consumers should be insulated from revealing transparent pricing and quality information protects service providers from incredibly important market discipline. It is time for a correction to the whole system. And I would expect prices to moderate. One service that I know a lot of believers participate in is a cost sharing plan that requires a conscientious objection to insurance and a preference for shared risk through shared payment rather than through actuarial-based insurance. It’s an interesting innovation. It’s more importantly an effective legal response to ObamaCare and some of its intentional violation of conscience at least for some individuals.
But for others recreating the previous system requires exposing those with pre-existing conditions to enormous premiums in the private marketplace if they are stuck buying there. We have to in reform offer a solution for that problem and in all honesty making it depend on consistent employment income simply kicks the exposure can down the road. There needs to be an effective sliding scale for payment based on income perhaps augmented by private donations (imagining a private solution to the problem instead of a public one.)
I’m not saying this will be easy. It will take the will of the majority to create a helpful reform. But I do believe we will have to wrestle with our entitlements and we pretty much are going to have to wrestle with them in reverse order of their passage. ACA, then Medicare Part D (grandfathering existing seniors and ensuring that all seniors have access to pharma insurance since coverage was spotty before the passage of Part D), then Medicaid and Medicare–which could be both be solved to some extent via ACA reform as well–and then the granddaddy of them all: Social Security (again grandfathering those very near to or already in retirement.)
This is a much broader policy picture than most of us try to wrestle with. And I am NOT saying it can all be solved at once. Likely it can be solved in increments over time and the American people will appreciate those that offer leadership in addressing it without exposing them to extensive additional financial risk.
On the supreme court nominee….if he nominates a moderate they should wait until after the election. If it goes badly for the republicans then confirm him. If it goes well then wait.
Dave Miller,
I see you made no prediction that the CRIMSON TIDE will win a second National Championship in a row. Then I realized the post was about predictions rather than the reporting of absolutes of factual reality.
Therefore, forgive my earlier thoughts of you being jealous and slighting the TIDE. I realize now that the reason you did not mention the TIDE winning another championship is due to there not needing to be such a prediction, because the whole FOOTBALL Universe knows that their willing another National Championship this coming season is an absolute fact.
Thank you, Dave, for the silent cheer for BAMA. You’re a goodun’, O Yes You Are!
And . . . ROLL TIDE ROLL!!!! to you, Dave.
I predict the Crimson Tide will go 0-12, and still receive a place in the football playoff.
Now that’s some biting humor. DM expresses the sentiments of millions of college football fans.
et tu Brute? et tu? And to think, William. The TIDE just gave UGA the best coach that money could buy.
Just goes to show ya. When you’re win in’ even an SEC brother will take a shot at ya.
He was our guy, on loan. Heck, we had to fire one of the most successful coaches in college football to make room for him.
I have to admit, in real life issues and things of eternal value, Coach Richt is a top drawer guy.
…besides, I’m far too spiritual to talk about college football in February, or the Yankees…ever.
“Discernment bloggers will continue to lose influence in the SBC because of their failure to exercise discernment in their own blogging.”
That would be great, but seeing how many people who follow discernment bloggers are the same people voting for Donald Trump, I don’t see discernment bloggers going away because those reading them don’t have much discernment (much like the discernment bloggers themselves).
I predict that the Cards will win the World Series, yet again.
I predict that the TN Vols will be cleared of any serious wrongdoing….haters don’t like it, when the ones they hate do good. And, they will win the SEC East, and then, beat the Crimson Tide in the real National Championship game(SEC championship game). And then, teams from other, lesser conferences will just yell, “Calf rope,” and won’t even try to play the Vols in the Pseudo-National Championship Game.
I predict that I will eat a bacon, double cheeseburger, very soon, and I will have a cherry coke to go with it.
David
Vol,
You guys will have a good year, I am sure. You may win the East and get to play BAMA in the real National Championship, but afterwards, the best you will get is a really high paying Bowl Game.
The TIDE shall not be denied!
All who have tried,
On the gridiron have died,
For Lady Victory is on the side,
Of the Mighty, Mighty TIDE!!!!
CB,
Great poem, Bro.
Go Vols! Beat Bama!
David
Vol,
I took the test and got me a “poetic license” same time I got my huntin’ license this year. It was only $5.00 more.
Go get you one and we will write SEC poems together and post ’em on Voices. Dave Miller will love it.
*ahem* Go Royals.
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27…What is the number of times you will be mugged on your way to Yankee Stadium!
So Dave Miller gets to spam for his Yankees 4 times in short order but 3 of my 4 responses get deleted? Hmm…Sounds like a typical yankee fan! 😀 😛
*ahem* Reigning World Series champs
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*ahem* Back-to-back A.L. Pennants
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*ahem* We’re clearly better than the Yankees.
And the Yankees are modeling their team after the Royals.
This makes me happy. 😉
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Micah and Dave, I’m working on a resolution for Convention that would have us come out strongly in opposition to the DH.
I’d vote yes on that, Todd.
Interesting predictions. I used to friendly bet my high school social studies classes that I could predict the results of a presidential election accurately from as far out as six months, and between 1984 and 2008, I only missed one, 2000, which a lot of people missed, and had to buy everyone in the class a milk shake and let them have it in class. I’d wait until after the election, and then point out the little signs and places to look that I got from my college poly sci professor. Thinks like specific geographic areas where the polls are accurate, where to get raw polling data instead of the modified stuff that the news media gets, and what trends to look for up to the month or so before the nominating conventions. The kids always thought there was some kind of trick to it, but really, there is a lot of information that is out there, and it doesn’t take a long time to gather and analyze.
I’m not as good with the sports stuff, but then, that’s all money, and very little polling data.
Sports are a tougher call.
Well, after South Carolina, the field has thinned a bit–once again.