Back in my seminary days, when I was young and idealistic, I took great comfort in the knowledge that men like Peter Wagner, Donald McGavran, Win Arn and Lyle Schaller had authored books containing all the wisdom necessary to bring numerical growth to any church I ever served. A comfortably warm feeling came over me when I read the lists of bullet points and action plans which seemingly guaranteed that I would baptize more saints than I buried and that more people would be discipled than would depart.
More than twenty years later, almost 90% of our churches are not growing through healthy evangelism, according to a 2004 study by New Orleans Baptist Theological Seminary. Strangely, at the same time we’ve had more church growth literature than ever before, we are experiencing rapid numerical decline, except among the ten percent of churches experiencing healthy evangelism. Perhaps it’s time to ask some hard questions.
- Are the 10% of churches experiencing healthy evangelism being served only by those pastors who read the books?
- Did any pastors of the 90% of churches not experiencing healthy evangelism read the books? Are they all slow readers?
- If the answers are really found in these books, shouldn’t we all be experiencing healthy evangelism? What if the books were wrong?
- What if healthy evangelism is not explained by the factors listed in the books but by other factors the books avoided?
For 28 consecutive years, under three pastors and two interims, the church I currently serve has registered fewer members each year than the year before. We still have a meaningful ministry. We still reach souls. We still baptize. We still preach and pray and visit and counsel and minister. We’re just growing older and smaller every year. Here are a few of the reasons, as I see them:
- Our community has aged and new housing is very rare. Many of the homes close to the church were built over 50 years ago. The typical home that furnished our congregation a family of six in the pew every Sunday morning now contributes only one, a widow whose husband I probably buried at some point over the past twelve years. The children have moved away.
- Things around us are closing. The flower shop across the street is boarded up. The high school one block down relocated. Even the football stadium at the end of the street will not feature games on Friday nights this fall, replaced by the newer one near the new high school. Once upon a time, our inner suburban ring was a highly desirable location for families. Today, they are choosing to locate farther away from the central district of our small city where our majestic steeple rises high.
- With a median age in the sixties, we bury between 25 and 35 people per year and typically baptize about half that number. More congregants move away from us than move to town. This is especially evident the week after our teenagers move off to college. We will rarely see them again except for holidays, weddings and funerals.
- Following a widow’s funeral, the children come to town and sell the house in order to liquidate the estate. Typically, it sells to individuals or families of an ethnic or socioeconomic group that is not attracted to the worship style, age, manners and customs of our church fellowship. We have many lovely society ladies who attend meetings, study books, participate in projects and then enjoy finger sandwiches. It’s fair to say that the new residents of our community aren’t like that.
- Frankly, as a socioeconomically lower class of people move into our community, we are open to ministering both to and among them. We feed many people locally through our food pantry. We minister to their children at Fall Festivals and Vacation Bible Schools. While it’s one thing for our new community residents to let us minister to them, it is another thing for them to feel comfortable joining us and being a part of us. Last year, I baptized the first black church member in the 137 year history of the church. While that may be a start, our congregation simply does not look like our immediate community.
- A fair number of people in our local community get in their cars on Sunday mornings, make their way to the highway, and travel twenty or thirty minutes to a megachurch in the socioeconomically privileged areas either to the south or to the north of us. One imagines that they may often stay in those communities Sunday afternoon for lunch and shopping before returning to our area which features fewer such amenities. Basically, the megachurches have often done to us what Walmart does to the corner drugstore.
Perhaps you are beginning to get the picture of the systemic problems inherent in a formerly large neighborhood church located in a transitional community. Running just over 800 in 1984, we are now just under 300 in 2012. It’s not really that hard to lose a net of eighteen people per year. All you have to do is baptize 20 and receive 15 by transfer of letter, while simultaneously conducting 30 funerals, sending 12 off to college and wishing 11 all the best as they move to their new homes.
I think Wagner, McGavran, Arn and Schaller had the very best of intentions. And yet, for the transitional community church, the downtown church, and the open country church, the painful reality is that factors are driving the church’s numerical condition that are simply beyond the control of even the most gifted pastor. Frankly, the prognosis is not all that great, and I am beginning to suspect that part of the problem stems from a diagnosis that falsely attributes church growth outcomes to ministry methodologies.
To further the medical analogy, and draw this article to a close, allow me to borrow an illustration from the television show House. Frequently, the brilliant but arrogant doctor will upbraid his medical students, chastising them for ruling out a diagnosis simply because there is no cure. If they come to a certain conclusion, they must face the painful reality that there’s nothing they can do medically to turn it around. Not wanting to admit the futility of this explanation, they continue arguing in favor of inferior theories for which there does, at least, exist a cure. When being right is hopeless, do we not prefer to be wrong?
Many churches similar to mine are also aging and dying. We must never give up or give in. We must keep preaching and reaching and teaching and serving and loving and caring and doing everything we can to fulfill God’s mission in our lives. But after more than twenty years of this, I cannot help but wonder if the diagnosis of the Church Growth Gurus was wrong after all. What if the one indispensable factor contributing to church growth is for your church — regardless of style, structure, pastor, doctrine or methods — to be located in a growing and financially secure (usually suburban) community? What if only ten percent of our churches happen to be located in communities with such potential for net numerical growth? If we accept this diagnosis, it means that our church growth books simply cannot solve the problem. Although such a conclusion may be excruciatingly painful, if it indeed has the advantage of being correct, then we should be courageous enough to embrace this reality, and cheerful enough to look on the bright side by admitting that at least all the books written by those Church Growth Gurus are now half price.
I think that’s a fair question. I would add to it that I feel there is a generalized set of complaints about effective discipleship and even the purpose of the traditional Sunday School that could be added to the mix. It certainly does not seem to ME that it’s just a problem of the church growth evangelists getting it wrong, but perhaps just a generalized shallow soil for supporting spiritual growth.
But your question reminds me of this passage:
1 Cor 3:5-8 (HCSB)
“5 What then is Apollos? And what is Paul? They are servants through whom you believed, and each has the role the Lord has given. 6 I planted, Apollos watered, but God gave the growth. 7 So then neither the one who plants nor the one who waters is anything, but only God who gives the growth. 8 Now the one planting and the one watering are one in purpose, and each will receive his own reward according to his own labor.”
This is essentially a spiritual good work and our part, honestly, is to be faithful and to leave the results to God. The church growth systems anticipate maximizing the positives and getting obstructions out of the way. The traditional Sunday School Spiral and Super Spiral sought to highlight potential roadblocks that would prevent growth such as having sufficient trained workers, adequate classes of an appropriate size to sustain growth, and a program of outreach that effectively let people who had at least visited that they were welcome.
I don’t think those are flawed tactics. But the strategy is obedience to God, not human-imagined approaches and your question seems to me to highlight that. You can be very obedient and see no growth. Adoniram Judson famously had only about a dozen converts after several years in Burma. But he persisted and his efforts to sow led to the seed germinating and a significant harvest being produced because God gave growth.
One of my dad’s favorite passages is the Parable of the Four Soils. By focusing on the soils instead of the sower, it begs the question of what our part is in the tilling of the soils. The parable itself is of a sower who somewhat indiscriminately broadcasts seed–well, indiscriminately from a Western agricultural mindset at least–and seemingly is unconcerned about how the seed takes.
So I’ll turn the question into a broader one (hopefully without frustrating Rick by doing so): what do we feel based on experience in today’s culture are effective strategies for “guiding” church growth, especially given God’s role in determining when and where growth occurs?
Great question, Greg, and one that does not frustrate me at all. The relationship between our meager human efforts and God’s grace in sending the increase is worthy of much more exploration.
Mostly, I think the problem is in the neglect of crossing cultural barriers. Churches tend to do outreach to those who fit their culture. That piece of the pie has been shrinking quickly for the past 25 years. Unfortunately, churches have focused on growing and not starting daughter churches across cultural barriers
Remember Ralph Winter’s E-Scale?
Most churches only do E-0 Evangelism
Stephen,
I certainly admire your missionary mindset. Now if I can only get my seventy year old white ladies to fit in with the twenty year old black guys in our Family Life Center gymnasium. If you’ve ever seen the movie “Airplane” think Barbara Billingsley coming up to two young men and saying, “Excuse me, I speak jive.”
I am not a pastor. There is no information biblically about decline in membership. I think it goes with the territory. It is about people and what is prophesied in scripture. We do not know the day and time of the decline but know we must continue to preach the gospel. All we can do is do what we are told in the gospels and wait for the return of Christ. I do wish it was about growth, but it is not.
Bruce,
Thanks for your honest and biblical layperson perspective. You are right in exhorting us to continue obeying Scripture and wait for Jesus to return. Indeed it is not about growth, but about obedience to God’s plan. Well said.
Rick, I think there are many asking similar questions as you. Thanks for being among those who are looking to do more than just ask the questions. I think the good intentions of the church growth books are indeed good intentions, but I think they are misdirecting at the same time. There becomes an emphasis upon the philosophies of men and a neglect of what the Spirit is saying to the churches.
The church really must decide if Scripture is sufficient for our day or not. If it is, there will have to be things that are spoken about at conferences hosted by publishing houses and state conventions that must be rejected and repented of. Then we must return to scripture like a child jumping from a picnic table top into her fathers arms without hesitation.
Is Scripture sufficient for our day or not?
Paul,
“Is Scripture sufficient for our day or not?”
Excellent question. I’m gonna go with an unqualified “yes.” Perhaps the church growth books build up within us a hunger and thirst and excitement for a measure of growth the Bible never promises to bring about in every single local congregational setting. Certainly, those who are scattered and persecuted see their churches of origin run off, even as God may use that process to build up other churches in other areas.
Thanks for keeping the discussion anchored in Scripture.
Perhaps, speaking in generalities, if we were making disciples of the people God had already sent us He’d send us more.
Could it be that our response to a decline in numbers, which started some time back, was to draw people to church ourselves instead of depending on Jesus to do that, as He promised He would? Rather than correct the problem causing the decline?
Bob,
Thanks for sharing your consistently discipleship-oriented perspective. You raise an excellent point. What if all these church growth strategies represent nothing other than man’s attempt to draw men to God when in fact Jesus declared that if we will lift Him up, He would draw all men unto Himself? Good thoughts!
The whole church growth movement seems to me to an exercise in the flesh. The N.T. tells us very clearly that there will be an increase in moral and spiritual decline until the end of this age. It’s not cultural relevance that’s the problem.
Indeed, people today are lovers of self, lovers of money and desire to have their ears tickled rather than hear the truth. Books giving us “Ten Sure Ways to Be a Better Tickler” are clearly not the answer. Well said.
I’m not going to participate in this discussion past this post because it will end up like all the other times church growth is discussed and many will justify–for a thousand reasons–why they are not winning souls. Other such discussions have just left me feeling discouraged.
However, I’m surprised that Rick did not mention that C. Pete Wagner in one of his very early books discussed the situation Rick describes under the malady of “Old Age.”
C. Peter Wagner recognized that one of the principles of “church growth” is church death. Some churches will end up in communities that are in decline for various reasons and “may” (and I’ll say “may”) simply need someone to provide care and love until they close their doors.
However, Rick may be giving in too soon in my opinion. I once pastored a church in a declining mining community. The town was becoming a “ghost town.” The town was dying.
Over a five year period in a population of only 3000 plus, we saw 375 first time decisions. At one event we had over 1 out of 3 citizens of the town attend over the course of the evening.
Sadly, I must report that that church is now just about as dead as the town–even though the the mines started up again and the town had a growth spurt. In fact, they have called one of the former retired pastors to come care for them.
So, my point is: 1) some churches will die of old age and it is honorable and good to care for them if that is what God has called one to do. C. Peter Wagner outlines this in his church growth books; 2) cultural decline (economically, socially, and spiritually) does not dictate church growth–God does; 3) anywhere there is one lost person, the church can be effective evangelistically, but other factors may lead to an ultimate decline numerically–such as birth-death rates in a given locale.
Frank,
Thanks for reminding me of Wagner’s church death cycle. I also thought about Dale’s model suggesting basically the same thing. Thanks also for your “ghost town” testimony of the fall, rise and fall of the church.
Let me gently correct one minor notion: “Rick may be giving in too soon in my opinion.” Brother, there is no “giving in” here, I assure you, at least in terms of effort, prayer, ministry, planning and so on.
I know you probably just intended that comment to encourage me to press on since we never know what God will do just around the corner. Thanks for promoting such hope. As I view the situation right now, I don’t really see that happening, but of course, I pray it will, I know God is able, and I would rejoice to see such results. But even if He should NOT bring about such growth, I will NEVER give in or give up or stop doing all that I can to reach every soul with the gospel.
Rick,
May I apologize for the poor choice of words. Thank you for your graciousness in hearing what I intended to say even though I said it poorly.
I’m a bit older than you so I can assure you I’ve “been there done that and have the T-shirt to prove it.”
Also, may I encourage you to “NOT” feel obligated to carry the church completely to the cemetery (if that is, in fact, where it is heading). I was not always open in my younger years to accepting that all tenures in ministry are not 37 years (the tenure of the pastor I am following at my present church).
Stay only as long as you are absolutely sure that this is where God wants you. There is no “dishonor”to passing the baton of hospice care to another pastor. In fact, I think that would in most cases be quite wise.
Again, please forgive me for he poor choice of words. It sounded better when I was writing it.
Rick,
This comment is being held in moderation because the name on my account changed itself.
I want to make sure it gets in.
Rick,
May I apologize for the poor choice of words. Thank you for your graciousness in hearing what I intended to say even though I said it poorly.
I’m a bit older than you so I can assure you I’ve “been there done that and have the T-shirt to prove it.”
Also, may I encourage you to “NOT” feel obligated to carry the church completely to the cemetery (if that is, in fact, where it is heading). I was not always open in my younger years to accepting that all tenures in ministry are not 37 years (the tenure of the pastor I am following at my present church).
Stay only as long as you are absolutely sure that this is where God wants you. There is no “dishonor”to passing the baton of hospice care to another pastor. In fact, I think that would in most cases be quite wise.
Again, please forgive me for he poor choice of words. It sounded better when I was writing it
Frank L.,
Based on your last response, in your opinion, how do you know when God’s moving you? I’ve been pastoring a church in a small town for about 12 and 1/2 years. Our church averages about 70 in worship and we have seen souls saved and discipled and young men surrender to the ministry. One of those young men is about to marry my oldest daughter.
But I was recently approached by a pastor who is retiring about possibly coming in view of a call where he is. I’ve got to admit that the prospects of moving are scary for me after 12 years in the same place. Anyhow, any advice would be nice.
I am no kind of authority but I’ll hazard an opinion. First it depends alot on your age. If you are over 50 that would be a strong reason to stay. Is your family up for a move. Teens don’t adjust as well usually
Will the perspective church give you greater opportunity for growth as an individual and family? Do you value opportunity more than stability? Are you willing to risk being wrong?
Of course noone can hear God for you but you. So unless you have asked and received His answer, all else is human speculation.
However. It is quite possible God is using Voices as His voice.
I moved after more than 14 years in one place. It’s scary, but sometimes a new start is advantageous.
Frank and Dave,
Thank you both for your responses. To answer your questions Frank. I’m 41 years old. I have 3 daughters, 19, 17, and 14. I personally think that this is a greater opportunity for growth. I would be going from a town of 400 people to a city of about 90,000. Another thing that makes me at least curious about this opportunity is the fact that I didn’t initiate it, I didn’t send my resume out or request anyone to put my name into the hat.
John,
Your daughters ages should be a consideration for you.
Also, the size of the town is not as significant as you would think, except 400 is on the small pond size in regard to fishing.
The key factor is the mindset of a church not the size of the community. I’d rather pastor a “big-thinking church” in a small town than a “small-thinking church in a big town.”
From experience, I’ve learned that the “mindset” is the key issue in church growth.
The fact you did not “initiate” is an important factor also that would indicate to me that God could be in it.
Frank,
No apology is necessary. Thanks again for your encouragement. It also means a lot to me to know that you have been there and done that. It’s not something you hear a lot of pastors talking about at conferences, if you know what I mean.
Rick,
My theory is that over 50% or more of pastors who now pastor a church of 100 or less could pastor any megachurch, but the percentage of mega-church pastors who could effectively pastor a church like yours is much lower.
I will grant this is an opinion and not a statistic.
If you don’t mind me dragging in a quote by a Methodist, I can’t help but think of a quote from UMC Bishop William Willimon:
“A couple of years ago, a District Superintendent paid me one of the greatest compliments I’ve ever received. He had told a pastor of our interest to move him to a different church. “I can’t do this,” responded the pastor. “That church is dead. It’s been dying for years and now I hear it’s really dead.” The DS replied, “I’ll tell the Bishop but let me warn you, this guy really believes that Easter is true. To tell him a pastor or a church is dead means nothing to him. He just sees death as an opportunity to see what Jesus can do.”
Rick,
That 90% number is not from me– that’s too high.
But, in regards to the bigger issue, I think that the role of such books and resources is to help pastors and churches learn from others– to see what God is doing elsewhere so they can consider their own situation.
Part of the problem is that too many did methodological mania– do these 7 things and you will grow 32%. That was a false promise. That was the false promise of (parts of) the Church Growth Movement.
But, such resources need to be used discerningly, not disregarded because churches are still struggling. Many have been helped.
I’ve received hundreds of emails over the years about Comeback Churches. Most of them have some variant of, “It helped us to see with fresh eyes.”
That’s my goal and, I think, the hope of many who write in the field.
Ed
Ed,
Thanks for your comments, and I’m sorry for misattributing the 90% stat. Here is the book review link which I incorrectly interpreted as a summary of your work, but which in retrospect must have been merely the view of the comment author himself: http://bit.ly/K8qmHK.
I agree with you that there is some value in the efforts of church growth books simply to explore what may be working in other places. That is certainly a worthwhile endeavor. I also agree that, at times, they tended to promise a bit more than they could deliver.
I pray for God’s work of healing in Kaitlyn’s life and for a full recovery in His perfect timing.
Rick: I have pastored small churches since 1984, have taught Church Growth at a Christian college, and am considered to be a small church advocate–whatever that means, lol. One church I pastored was in similar circumstances–changing neighborhood, etc. The thing I found most helpful was to reach out to the friends and relatives of the people we DID reach, without respect to whether they were in our neighborhood or not. We saw significant growth.
As to Greg’s good question above: I think the guiding principle needs to be to minister to people as Jesus did and not worry about numerical growth. If the numbers increase, wonderful. But more importantly are we reaching people for Jesus or trying to have more people in the pew?
Terry Reed
Small Church Tools
Terry,
Thanks for your words of wisdom and a truly healthy perspective.
Anyone here familiar with Christian Schwartz? He wrote a book called Natural Church Development, based on a lot of international research, defending the thesis that church health produces church growth. According to him, although some growing churches are not healthy, all healthy churches (following a list of I can’t remember exactly how many church health indicators he identified) grow naturally. I have since heard that some of his research has been called into question, though. Anyone know any more about that?
Also, I would like to see us all focused on the growth of the church at large in our communities, both numerically and spiritually. Perhaps a better question than, Is your local congregation growing numerically, is, How is your local congregation contributing to the numerical and spiritual growth of the Body of Christ in the community in which you are located?
David,
I’ve been through the two year NCD process. I think there were 8 factors. I really like your idea of broadening health and growth to include the cluster of churches within a community. Thanks for sharing.
Success in the Kingdom is measured by faithfulness. Thanks for the good word.
What has missed the attention of most ministers and members is that society has in place now the means to alienate the Christian Faith from the public forum, to make it unacceptable, politically incorrect, apparently absurd at best and even insane at worst (if not downright evil). There is also no future for our children. Twenty years ago I wrote a paper evaluating materials on jobs in the future. The conclusion was there would be no jobs for our children. The reason: Computerization, automation, and robotics. So we face a trial like never before, one in which we must create our own jobs and jobs for our children and neighbors. We must educate and train to the nth degree. The challenge is that it demands the whole of us, brains and all, as C.S. Lewis said long ago under other circumstances.