Fifty-four years ago, I sat in Dr. David Garland’s Old Testament Introduction class at Southwestern Seminary. When we came to Genesis 1:28—“be fruitful and multiply,” Dr. Garland declared this was the only biblical commandment that people had consistently obeyed. Well, he spoke the truth fifty years ago, but today birth rates are plunging in all the developed countries. In recent days several articles have appeared on the internet explaining how the low fertility rate in the USA will affect our future as a nation. It seems appropriate to consider the effects on the Southern Baptist Convention and its churches.
The “fertility rate” reflects the number of births per adult female in their lifetime. Population stability (status quo) requires a fertility rate of 2.1 births. I realize that a mother cannot give birth to a .1 child. We’re considering large populations here that demand sweeping statistics. The 2.1 figure comes from the necessity to replace the father and mother, with .1 to allow for premature deaths, epidemics, and calamities. The fertility rate in the USA began to drop in 2007, and it has trended down since then. In 2025, the fertility rate in the United States was 1.57. Other nations have also experienced declines, as you can see:
Russia—1.5
Singapore—1.1
Japan—1.2
South Korea–.8
I saw an article on the internet with the title: “East Asian Nations Face Demographic Crisis.”
What makes low fertility rates a critical issue?
Economic Problems
Declining birth rates mean there are fewer workers to fill the jobs necessary for economic growth or even stability.
Social Welfare Problems
Fewer workers in the economy means there are fewer workers paying into the Social Security System. In the 1950s, there were about six workers for each Social Security recipient. That ratio provided for a stable system financially. Today, in the USA, there are 2.3 workers per recipient. Because of this, the funds in the Social Security Trust Fund are being rapidly depleted. In fact, the trustees of the system estimate that without changes to the financing, benefits paid to the Social Security recipients must be reduced by 19-24 percent in 2033. Lots of SS recipients barely survive now. What will happen to them if their benefits are cut by 20 percent?
Education Problems
Fewer children are being born, and that means the number of school-age children will also decline. My grandson is a student in the Keller Independent School District on the north side of Fort Worth, Texas. Next year, the Keller District will close one elementary school and three intermediate schools. His elementary school is operating at 74 percent capacity. Other school districts in our area are closing schools as well. Why? Fewer students.
The population decline will also affect higher education—colleges and universities. A recent article on Google News—”More Than a Quarter of Private Colleges Are at Risk of Closing”—explains the problems facing America’s colleges. The writer, Jon Marcus, quotes a study from the Huron Consulting Group. The study mentions 129 colleges at high risk for closing and predicts that 442 of the 1,700 private colleges in the USA will close in the next ten years. Why so? There are 2.3 million fewer students than in 2010. Beyond that, the government has made it harder for international students to study in the USA, so their numbers are down. Further, the high cost of college has discouraged students from enrolling. More and more young men are choosing to enroll in technical schools and apprenticeship programs rather than go to college for four years. For example, our great-nephew became an apprentice plumber after graduating from high school. Within four years, he was earning more than $100,000 per year. He had no student loan debt to pay. The percentage of high school graduates going on to college dropped from 70 percent in 2016 to 61 percent in 2023. Even big universities are downsizing. I live about 30 miles from the University of North Texas (enrollment 47,000). The university just cut 45 major and minor fields. Of course, other universities are doing the same. Why? They cannot justify continuing low-enrollment programs. Colleges are also facing the “demographic cliff.” This phrase refers to the decrease in the number of 18-year-old youths. The number of teenagers is decreasing along with the general population. Soon, colleges will be competing to enroll new students from a shrinking pool of eligible kids.
Church Problems
What are the implications for churches and for the SBC? For sure, we’ll see children’s Sunday School enrollment decline, as well as other children’s programs. Our children’s enrollment and youth enrollment will decrease along with the general population. Another result will be a further decline in the SBC’s membership. Most of our churches are predominantly white (Caucasian), and the white birthrate is even lower than the general birthrate. Southern Baptist colleges will struggle with the demographic cliff. Those with big financial endowments will survive; those that receive most of their money from tuition and government student-loan payments will eventually fail. Of course, our seminaries will struggle to maintain their enrollments as the number of young adults diminishes. Do you see other issues on the horizon?
